NCAA Football Pick Against The Spread - Nevada Wolf Pack vs New Mexico Lobos

New Mexico Lobos

Thursday, November 3, 2016 11:32 PM GMT

With Nevada's defense and their offense struggling after the season ending injury of their starting QB, Capper Joe Gavazzi is sensing that this team is getting steamrolled by the New Mexico Lobos in his NCAAF Pick.

 

Nevada at New Mexico (-14) 10:15 ET

Each weekend, I isolate a CFB STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK for patrons of the Pointspread Prognosis. These selections are now 6-3 ATS (67%) this season. It is a contest in which I look for one team to double rush the opponent, a historical 75% winning pointspread proposition that was 20 -7 ATS last week. 

Nevada enters this contest at 3-5 SU, losers of consecutive games. This loss, along with next week to San Diego St., will cement the fact that they are not going Bowling for the first time in 3 years under 4th year HC Polian Their offensive chances have dimmed with QB Stewart (shoulder) out for the season with Soph QB Gangi expected to make the start. In a 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS slide, the Wolfpack has defeated only lowly Fresno in league play. Culprit has been a rush defense that allowed 401 to Wyoming in their previous game, allowed 344 at Hawaii and 383 to Cal-Poly Slo (option offense). The bottom line is that the Wolfpack defense is allowing 270/5.5 overland for the year.  How do you think that is going to match up against a New Mexico option attack, which is the No. 1 running team in the nation? Not well!

This is the 5th year for HC Davie at New Mexico. It certainly took him awhile to turn things around. Last year, they finally achieved Bowl eligibility with a 7-6 SU record. This year, they enter today at 5-3 SU on a 3-0 SU ATS winning streak. They can claim their Bowl eligibility with a win today. Since their BYE week in late September, the option offense has rushed for 377 or more yards in 4 of 5 weeks.That includes the staunch rush defense of Boise and an Air Force run defense, which earlier this season allowed Navy just 57 overland yards. With the momentum of that 3-0 SU ATS streak, in which they have covered by 57 points, they now get to face a Nevada rush defense. With a 357/6.8 running game YTD, you can expect the Lobos to control the ball and the clock in a dominant 3 TD win against the shell-shocked Wolfpack in a classic CFB STEAMROLLER. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on New Mexico tonight.

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Free College Football Pick: New Mexico -14.5

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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