NCAA Football Odds Overvalue Marshall as Hosts to Louisiana Tech

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 4, 2014 6:52 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2014 6:52 PM UTC

LA Tech vs. Marshall is considered by this College Football handicapper to be a quality underdog who has edges from a statistical point of view, a situational edge or a technical perspective.

LA Tech vs. Marshall (-13) Noon ET ESPN2
Each week in the Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter, we focus on an underdog with the edge. Often times, this UNDERDOG has won the game outright for us.  For the season, the record is 10-4 ATS with no fewer than 6 outright victories.  The result last week was a crushing defeat with Auburn, when Alabama scored 28 4th quarter points (resulting in the dismissal of the Auburn DC).  Today, we line up with a quality team with great momentum in an outstanding situation.

LA Tech has been one of the surprise teams in college football under 2nd year HC Holtz. Last year, the Bulldogs went 4-8 SU ATS.  This year, LA Tech is 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS, including 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in CUSA play.  Their offensive resurgence can be linked in no small part to transfer QB Sokol, who has launched 29 TDs.  Last week, LA Tech played their best offensive game of the season in a 76-31 home field victory against Rice, in which they rolled up 677 offensive yards.  They enter today on a 4-1 SU ATS run. 

On the other sideline is a Marshall team who suffered their first loss of the season last week on this field (67-66) to W. Kentucky.  In that game, the Marshall defense allowed 738 yards!  Prior to that contest, Marshall had hopes of inclusion in the New Year’s Day Bowl package.  But, that crushing home loss leaves them with unbeaten letdown.

Because of Marshall’s formerly undefeated record and high-scoring offense, HC Holliday and QB Cato head a Marshall contingent that is now greatly overvalued in College Football odds.  The defensive collapse and the bubble burst of the undefeated season leaves them in vulnerable territory with the remembrance that they lost the title game on this field to Rice last year.  LA Tech regained their late season momentum last week and features a coach in Holtz whose numbers surpass the current home field run of the Herd.  For Holtz has a lifetime record of 37-18 ATS as underdog, including 11-1 ATS as +6+ on the road. With LA Tech standing 6-0 ATS away to -10 this season, we have all the ammunition we need for an outright victory for this very live pup!           

Free College Football Pick: Louisiana Tech +11 at Pinnacle

comment here