Navy vs. SMU Picks, Predictions College Football Week 7: AAC Rivals Collide Under Friday Night Lights
The Navy Midshipmen visit the SMU Mustangs in the first of two Friday night college football games. Check out our top picks for Navy-SMU below.
Navy enters Week 7 play at 2-3 straight up but 3-2 against the spread. The service academy is coming off a 53-21 thrashing of Tulsa last week in which it the Midshipmen easily covered the spread as 5-point underdogs on the consensus closing line. They also cashed the Over/Under of 45.5 all on their own.
SMU is 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS. The Mustangs have dropped three games in a row, including last week's 41-19 loss to UCF, after opening with back-to-back wins by margins of at least 29 points.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 7 game between Navy and SMU (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Navy vs. SMU Game Info
Date: Friday, Oct. 14, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Weather: 87℉, 0% chance of precipitation, 4-mph SW winds
Navy vs. SMU Odds
Navy vs. SMU Odds Analysis
The spread has grown in favor of SMU. The consensus opening line listed the Mustangs as 10.5-point favorites. That line moved to -12 as of Friday morning with 55% of the ATS tickets accounting for 67% of the handle on SMU.
The Over/Under also increased from 55.5 at opening to 57 as of gameday morning. Bettors are aligned on the Over with 59% of the tickets accounting for 67% of the handle.
Navy vs. SMU Picks
Navy vs. SMU ATS Pick
SMU -12.5 (-108) ★★★
Despite showing signs of improvement and even scoring a pair of upset victories over conference foes in recent weeks, Navy is still one of the weaker teams in the AAC. As such, it’s difficult to see a team with limited offensive firepower keeping things close on the road against SMU.
The three-game losing streak SMU carries into Week 7 is not nearly as alarming as it may appear. The Mustangs were very competitive in their losses against quality Power Five opponents. Last week’s road game at UCF was postponed multiple times, and SMU still managed to hang around for an entire half before things unraveled.
Perhaps the greatest advantage SMU will have in this matchup is the arm and experience of quarterback Tanner Mordecai. Though Navy is solid against the run, it has been a different story when defending opposing passing attacks. The Midshipmen are allowing 280.5 yards per game through the air, which ranks 109th out of 131 FBS teams.
Despite the fact that the Mustangs lost three of their top four receivers from a year ago, there is still talent at the wide receiver position. SMU also boasts an experienced defensive front that should prove valuable when it comes to defending Navy’s triple-option offense.
Navy vs. SMU O/U Pick
Over 57 (-110) ★★★
With most sportsbooks having the total at 57.5, grab the half-point of value at Caesars. Given the prolific nature of SMU’s offense combined with the improvements Navy has shown on that side of the ball in recent weeks, this game figures to have a fair bit of scoring.
The advantage that Mordecai and the Mustangs’ passing attack will have looms large. The Midshipmen lost several key playmakers from last year’s secondary. A young defensive backfield is not ideal when going up against a high-powered passing attack.
On the flip side, SMU’s defense gave up 160 yards on the ground to UCF a week ago. On the season, the Mustangs rank a paltry 119th nationally in run defense. Opponents have gashed SMU for nearly 200 yards rushing per game. Although Navy is a bit undersized in the trenches, Tai Lavatai is surrounded by capable ball-carriers in the team’s patented triple-option system.
For what it’s worth, recent matchups between these two have been high-scoring. In fact, the 55 points scored in last year’s meeting marked the lowest point total of any game between the schools in the last five years. The previous four encounters featured 83, 61, 63, and 88 points, respectively.
Navy vs. SMU Prop Pick
SMU Over 34.5 (-115) ★★★
One of the common denominators between Navy’s upset wins over AAC cohorts East Carolina and Tulsa was a positive turnover differential. The Midshipmen forced a pair of takeaways in the overtime win against ECU and came up with four in last week’s blowout of the Golden Hurricane. Achieving a similar feat on the road against a veteran quarterback and offense will be difficult.
With junior wideouts Jake Bailey and Rashee Rice serving as his top two weapons, Mordecai should be able to pick apart the subpar Navy secondary. SMU also has a solid ground game to complement the passing attack and help keep defenses honest.
Provided that the Mustangs avoid killing their own drives with self-inflicted wounds, the Over on 34.5 points is well within reach. After all, this is a team that has already scored 27 on Maryland and 34 on TCU this season.
It’s also worth noting that other sportsbooks in the market have the SMU team total prop listed a full point higher than this FanDuel offering.
Where to Bet on Navy-SMU Picks
Navy-SMU picks made 10/12/2022 at 3:15 p.m. ET
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