Navy the Smart College Football Pick in Trip to Notre Dame

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, October 5, 2015 3:39 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 5, 2015 3:39 PM GMT

College Football odds analyst shares his predictions and free picks on what could be the biggest upset in week 6. Join us as he breaks down the betting lines in Navy-Notre Dame Saturday clash.

Navy vs. Notre Dame (-14) 3:30 ET NBC TV
Navy travels to Notre Dame to meet the Fighting Irish for this 3:30 ET game as televised on NBC TV. Last year, Notre Dame won this contest (49-39), despite being outrushed 336-218 by the Middies. Yet, Notre Dame failed to cover as a 14 point favorite. Pointspread outcomes have generally favored Navy in this series, including covering 4 of the last 6 meetings and each of the last 2. 

This week, Navy is my College Football Pick as the big dog bite-down game of the week. Last week’s selection on Washington St. was an easy winner, when the Cats, as Dogs, lost (34-28) to Cal as 19 point pup.  The week before, we won with Ball St. (+19) at Northwestern as the Cardinals cruised in under the number, losing just 24-19. Expect this contest to be equally as close, as the Middies field their best team in recent seasons.

 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish  
Last Saturday, in the Marquee Matchup of the evening, Notre Dame lost to Clemson (24-22). The game was played in inclement weather.  Despite that fact, Notre Dame rallied for (19) 4th quarter points to pull within 2 of Clemson late in the game. Only a missed 2 point conversion prevented the game from going into OT. The Fighting Irish actually deserved a better fate, as they outgained the Tigers 434-296, but fell victim to 4 TOs. The (-3) in the net TO column virtually sealed their fate. Following that huge nationally televised affair, Notre Dame comes home to face Navy, a team who they have defeated 4 consecutive times under 6th year HC Kelly. But, the Irish are also caught in a bit of a sandwich spot, as they look ahead to a home revenge game against the USC team, who beat them (49-14) last year.  It is a well-known fact that the Fighting Irish are normally overpriced in this role, as in the last 10+ years, they are 20-31-3 ATS as home chalk. That does, however, include 2-0 ATS this year in wins over Texas and UMass. This, however, is a far greater challenge for the Fighting Irish! 

 Must Read: Numbers that Stand Out in Week 6 College Football Betting Board

Navy Midshipmen
This is the best Navy team in recent memory for 8th year HC Niumatalolo. Last week, Navy defeated Air Force (33-11). That avenged last year’s defeat at Air Force and put them in control of their fate for the Commander in Chief Trophy.  A 33-11 final of that game did not totally reflect how competitive the contest was.  True enough, Navy got the best of the Fly Boys in the yardage stats with a 387-277 edge.  But, it was 4 key TOs by Air Force, including 3 lost fumbles that were the real keys to the game.  Again this season, the Navy option attack is in high gear. They run an average of 59 times per game for 340 YPG for 5.8 YPR. They are averaging 39 PPG. That’s really not a surprise, as they are led by 4th year senior QB Reynolds and his FB Swain. Last week, Reynolds toted the ball 24 times for 183 yards. But, Navy has also shown solid improvement on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 15 PPG, 333 YPG and 4.8 YP play. Regardless of the fact this game is sandwiched between Air Force and a conference contest with Tulane, there can be little doubt that the Middies have this game circled on their calendar. Supporting the selection of Navy in this contest is their record of 24-9 ATS as road dog in the last decade.

 

College Football Pick
Most surprising in this game is the betting line. Despite the fact that Navy is off to a 4-0 ATS start, in which they have covered by 48 points, they are still getting a TD more than where this line would have been opening week. That, despite the fact, that Notre Dame has played the season with numerous injuries at key positions. Put the College Football Odds in your favor and grab the 2 TDs with Navy as they take a big dog bite-down out of the Fighting Irish.      

Free College Football Pick: Navy +14

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