Memphis will look to get back over .500 against a struggling Navy team that just can’t get stops on the defensive end. Can Memphis put together another 500-yard performance on the offensive end against Navy?
Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers
Thursday, October 14, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
The Navy Midshipmen have started the season 1-4 with some heartbreaking one-score losses. Navy has had to play a difficult schedule to start the season but at the end of the day, being close doesn’t count. The Midshipmen are scoring 17.6 points per game while allowing 32.2 points per game. It’s been a complete disaster for this group. They’ve only averaged 281.6 yards per game on offense while giving up 360.6 yards on defense per game.
The run game is supposed to be the Midshipmen’s bread and butter but it just hasn’t been that. They’re rushing for just 219 yards per game and for Navy’ standards, that’s not good while only averaging 62.6 yards passing.
Meanwhile, Memphis hasn’t been all that great stopping the run and are now 3-3 on the season while allowing 32.7 points per game. The reality is, Memphis’ offense should be more than capable of scoring against Navy while Navy might continue to struggle to score points against Memphis.
The Tigers are averaging just under 500 yards of offense per game with 323 yards in the air per game. The one area where Navy has looked the worst this season has been in coverage with the secondary.
Navy is allowing 234.2 yards per game in the passing game and Memphis has so much playmaking ability on the offensive end that Navy likely won’t be able to get many stops. Memphis is scoring 36.3 points per game this season and are led by Seth Henigan, a freshman quarterback that just continues to get better game-by-game.
The pass protection hasn’t been elite but should be fine against a Navy pass rush that hasn’t been all that effective this season in the first place. Henigan has a favorite target in Calvin Austin III who has eight touchdowns on 48 receptions this season.
Austin III has 837 yards receiving and is averaging 17.4 yards per catch. He should have another big day against this Navy secondary after securing 13 catches for 200 yards against Tulsa last week.
Memphis scores so quickly against opponents that the defensive numbers are inflated just a bit. Memphis isn’t all that bad, although they’ve allowed 316.3 yards passing per game.
Obviously, the coverage won’t have to do much in this game and it’ll all be about stopping the run. The Tigers are capable of doing this, at home. They’re used to being out on the field for a lot of drives, so long 12-play drives against Navy won’t fatigue them like other defenses.
For your NCAAF pick, give me Memphis -9 in this game. Any number below 10 makes plenty of sense against Navy. You can even look at Memphis and their team total when it’s released.
NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.