National Championship Scenarios: Handicapping to Project Lines and Outcomes

sports-picks

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, December 31, 2017 1:20 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 31, 2017 1:20 PM UTC

The semi-final games of the College Football Playoff will commence on New Year's Day but it's interesting to entertain the possible championship scenarios. Let's put our own college football odds on the four possible matchups and get ahead of the game!

#4 Alabama vs. #3 Georgia

If you preview the college football odds for the semi-final games, you will discover that in both the Sugar and Rose Bowl games that the lower ranked team is actually the neutral site favorite. Therefore, it wouldn't shock anyone if No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama, both hailing from the Southeastern Conference, met in the CFP National Championship game in Atlanta. This would be rather ironic because it was, in fact, a common opponent and another SEC rival in the Auburn Tigers that derailed both teams' pursuit of an undefeated season, and would be on the outside looking in on this possible title tilt.

Projected Line: Alabama -6

#4 Alabama vs. # 2 Oklahoma

If the Tide gets by No. 1 seed Clemson then they could face this season's Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners. Had it not been for one of the most stunning upsets of the season, Oklahoma's 38-31 loss to unheralded Iowa State as 30-point home favorites, the Sooners would have been the undisputed top dog in this tournament. Nevertheless, Nick Saban and the No. 1 defense in the nation will surely attract plenty of money, even as north of a field-goal favorite against the high-flying Sooners.

Projected Line: Alabama -5

#1 Clemson vs. #3 Georgia

The defending national champion Clemson Tigers are strikingly similar to their Sugar Bowl rivals Alabama in that they have a stonewall defense but possess a more prolific aerial attack, albeit a less bruising rushing game. That said, all we have to do is eyeball the projected point spread on the Clemson/ Alabama Sugar Bowl to give us a frame of reference for the line on a Tigers/Bulldogs clash. As anyone who is wagering on the Sugar Bowl in their college football picks on Monday knows, the line is a solid Alabama-3 over Clemson. Should the Tigers emerge victoriously, we believe the number will be shorter against the Dawgs than if the Tide prevails.

Projected Line: Clemson -4

#1 Clemson vs. #2 Oklahoma

Despite the fact that Clemson has allowed an average of just 12.8 points per game, trailing only Alabama in that category, the buzz will be all about Baker Mayfield and the nearly 45 point per game offense of the Oklahoma Sooners. Yes, the Tigers are the defending champs with a terrific defense but Mayfield and the Sooners will garner the lion's share of the headlines and a boatload of square bets. Perception is reality in the bookmaking business, therefore, the line on this one will be tighter than you think.

Projected Line: Clemson -1 ½

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