MWC Week 5 Overview: Wyoming To Stay Within Spread vs. Boise State

Tuesday, September 25, 2018 3:07 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 25, 2018 3:07 PM UTC

NCAAF handicapper Mark Lathrop brings us his Week 5 Mountain West Conference preview, featuring the Boise State-Wyoming tilt and spots a few games with wagering value deep within the betting card.

2018 NCAAF Record: 14-8, +9.56u
*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

Mountain West Spotlight: Boise State (2-1 SU) at Wyoming (2-2 SU)Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)Free NCAAF Pick: Wyoming ATSBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3453310, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,1275,999991,1252], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The Boise State Broncos look to exorcise some demons in Laramie this week, as it was the Cowboys who put an end to their New Year’s Day bowl dreams in 2016 in Laramie with a 30-28 win. Boise State won’t overlook Wyoming here, even as a 17-point favorite, but the task is definitely made easier without Josh Allen at the helm for the Cowboys.

Speaking of Cowboys, it’s the second week in a row Boise State has faced a team with that mascot after losing to Oklahoma State as a 1-point favorite, 44-21. Special teams blunders were the culprit for that final score being out of hand, as Boise State wasn’t outclassed from a talent perspective. A bye week will go a long way in fixing the special teams issues and I expect the Broncos, led by quarterback Brett Rypien, to execute on their first few drives in scripted fashion.

Wyoming is coming off an uninspiring 17-14 win against FCS Wofford; however, many Cowboys players were missing time due to injury. The bye week for them helps those players come back and have their roster at full strength. The current line doesn’t take this into account in my opinion, and the line sitting at an important number of 17 sticks out. If it moves to 17.5 or if it's necessary to buy a half-point, take the Cowboys and the points at home.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

List of FBS quarterbacks with 10+ TD and 0 INT this season...

1️⃣Tua Tagovailoa, @AlabamaFTBL
12 TD, 0 INT - 80 pass attempts
2️⃣Brett Rypien, @BroncoSportsFB
10 TD, 0 INT - 112 pass attempts pic.twitter.com/4ltm7bEag0

— Jay Tust (@KTVBSportsGuy) September 23, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Around the Mountain West Conference (All Games Saturday)

Nevada at Air Force (-7), 4 p.m. ET, on ESPNews: Nevada and senior quarterback Ty Gangi have averaged more than 40 points per game this season. Unfortunately, their defense has given up 39 points per game to make their record of 2-2 SU make sense. A high-scoring affair looks to be in store here as well, with Air Force giving up 42 points last week. The total line has already moved from 66.5 to 69 in offshore markets. Last year these teams scored 48 points by halftime.

Liberty at New Mexico (-6), 6 p.m. ET: In an indicator of the parity in college football right now, the Liberty Flames' only win this year came against Old Dominion – a team that just upset Virginia Tech. The Flames crushed Old Dominion in Week 1, just to be crushed in two games straight against Army and North Texas. New Mexico is having QB issues after Tevaka Tuioti was knocked out of the Wisconsin game with a concussion. He will be back after the bye week, though, and I expect New Mexico to play well in their homecoming game.

Hawaii (-13) at San Jose State, 7 p.m. ET: San Jose State has started 0-3, but they’ve also played two pretty good Pac-12 teams in Washington State and Oregon. They’ll host Hawaii after a bye week, who has somehow stayed completely healthy after playing in Week 0 and having no bye week at all. This game screams "under" with the line sitting at 68.5 and San Jose State averaging 20 points per game.

Toledo at Fresno State (-7.5), 10:30 p.m. ET, on ESPNU: I’ll have a full writeup on this game later in the week, but at first glance the huge total line move from 63 to 59.5 is an interesting one, as well as the side of Fresno State from -11 to -7.5. Toledo rocked Fresno State 52-17 in 2016.

comment here