MWC College Football Picks: Colorado State to Capitalize vs. New Mexico

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, November 16, 2015 4:12 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 16, 2015 4:12 PM UTC

Colorado State will travel to New Mexico for this Mountain West Conference game, join us reading this betting preview article that will conclude with our free college football pick for this game.


Colorado State vs. New Mexico 5:30PM ET
At 5:30PM ET on Saturday, November 21st, Colorado State will travel to New Mexico for this Mountain West Conference game. They may still be celebrating in the streets of Albuquerque and on the campus of New Mexico, after the Lobos’ victory last week. It came by a count of (31-24), as +30 point underdog, against the nationally ranked Boise State. team, who was the conference leader in MWC play. Even more than that, it provided the Lobos with the all-important 6th victory of the season to make them Bowl eligible for the 1st time since 2006. When a blind hog finds an acorn, the surprising success and satisfaction surely results in a letdown the following week. That is particularly true when our team is playing in the role of home dog and, in this case, against a Colorado State team who has dominated the Lobos in recent seasons and is now playing with Bowl motivation of their own. 


Preview & Analysis
In the previous 4 seasons, this matchup could hardly be considered a rivalry. The scores in reverse order, beginning with last year, when the Lobos were outgained 698-356 in a (58-20) trouncing have been Colorado State victories by scores of 66-42, 24-20, 14-10 and 38-14.  Despite that recent season series success, Colorado State is now in a “pick 'em” spot for today’s game after being a 3 TD favorite last year. 

This is the 4th season for the Lobos under the leadership of HC Davies, who brought his hybrid pistol/triple option attack to Albuquerque. In the previous 4 years, the Lobos have gone 11-25 SU with a defense in the last 2 years that allowed an average of 40 PPG and 516 YPG. Credit a modicum of defensive improvement by the Lobos, just 26/431 this season, for the improvement. But, the offense has taken a step back as well, averaging only 370 YPG after 400+ yard outputs in the previous 2 years.  Most importantly is that last week’s victory at Boise was a bit of a mirage. Boise outgained New Mexico 638-413 with a (+2) net TO margin for New Mexico aiding in the (31-24) victory over the highly-acclaimed Broncos. Now with 6 wins for the season, albeit against the likes of Miss Valley St., Wyoming, New Mexico St., Hawaii they have now qualified for Bowl eligibility. Further aiding the letdown is the Lobos’ game prior to Boise, a 14-13 upset of Utah St., as 16 point home dog.  Much like in the Boise win, New Mexico had a (+) net TO margin in that game, but was outgained 294-236.  Simply do not believe this blind hog will find its acorn three weeks in a row!

While New Mexico was pulling consecutive upsets, Colorado State was rolling over UNLV (49-35) as 7 point home chalk. It was a game in which the Rams controlled the line of scrimmage with a 325-172 running edge. After 2 years of success under former HC McElwain, Colorado State is slowly returning to the 18-9 SU form of those 2 seasons with last week’s win. But with 5 victories for the season, they are still 1 game shy of their Bowl invite.


Final Pick
Expect that to come today at this value price against an opponent they have dominated. I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor and join me in my college football pick with Colorado State as the blind hog play of the week.

College Football Pick: Colorado State -1.5 at Bet365 

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