Mountain West Week 2 Overview: Lobos Likely to Get Rolled by Wisconsin

Tuesday, September 4, 2018 12:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 4, 2018 12:33 PM UTC

Our week 2 Mountain West preview is here, and Mark Lathrop finds a few spots that should get our attention and worthy of wagers.

2018 NCAAF Record: 5-1, +7.46u

*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

Mountain West Spotlight: New Mexico (1-0 SU) at No. 5 Wisconsin (1-0 SU)Saturday, 12 p.m. ETFree NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin 1HBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Wisconsin likely outclasses New Mexico in every aspect of the game right now, but the Badger’s offense is one of the most efficient in all of college football too. They’ll match up against a New Mexico defense that hasn’t been good in years and just allowed Incarnate Word to drop 30 points on them. The defense of Wisconsin will be ready to battle New Mexico’s more pass heavy attack, not with their secondary, but with a defensive line that will far and away be able to disrupt the Lobo’s quarterback, Tevaka Tuioti.

With the line set at -35 favoring Wisconsin, I don’t have much interest in laying the chalk on the full game with Wisconsin’s ability to bleed clock once they get a huge lead. Getting that huge lead early, especially with the 10AM MST start for the Lobos, shouldn’t be an issue. I’ll be wagering on Wisconsin to cover the first half number if it comes in at 21 or less in the coming days.

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NMSU sends out a dog to retrieve the kick-off tee after a garbage time touchdown.

Commentator: “That was New Mexico State’s longest run of the night.”

🤣 Welcome back football.

— Sam Golden (@sgolden2433) 26 de agosto de 2018
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Around the Mountain West (All Games Saturday Unless Noted)

Nevada at Vanderbilt, 12 p.m. ET, SEC Network: Nevada got their warmup game out of the way in Week 1 by waxing Portland State 72-19 at home. This week will be a much stiffer opponent as they face Vanderbilt coming off of a 35-7 snubbing of Middle Tennessee State. Nevada’s prolific passing game will come into play, as will Vandy’s pass-first offense and poor defense. This is a clear Over game if the number comes in right.

Air Force at Florida Atlantic, 2 p.m. ET, Facebook Live: Florida Atlantic got crushed in Oklahoma in Week 1 and returns to take on Air Force as a 10-point favorite. What appears to be the neutralizer in this game is that Air Force’s rushing attack matches up with Florida Atlantic’s weakness defending the run. FAU will be better at that this year than last though, so I expect that they will be able to pull away late by throwing the ball against Air Force’s secondary, ironic as that sounds.

Wyoming at Missouri, 7 p.m. ET, MW, ESPNU: A classic strength versus strength matchup, the Missouri Tigers match up well against the Wyoming Cowboy’s offense. After a surprising Wyoming dismantling by the hands of Washington State in week 1, the Cowboys may find it hard to keep up with Missouri without their home field advantage. The size of the Tigers offensive line is a clear advantage as Missouri runs away with this one. The 17.5-point hook has me pausing on laying the chalk, however.

Arkansas at Colorado State, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network: Colorado State has given up an average of 44 points in their first 2 games this season. They’ll welcome a prolific offense in Arkansas to town in week 2, with the Razorbacks having questions of their own on defense. This game should be a shootout and I’ll lean Over until the total hits 70.

Fresno State at Minnesota, 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1: Freson State didn’t do me any favors last week, as I have had their game penciled against UCLA as an upset special for some time now. The gig is up now, as they find themselves just 2.5-point underdogs against Minnesota on the road. The Fresno State defense did their thing last week by holding Idaho to 13 points, but I don’t think anyone saw them scoring 79 points. This game is an absolute pass for me, although I’ll hope for a Minnesota win so I can get a better line against UCLA next week.

New Mexico State at Utah State, 8 p.m. ET, Facebook Live: Utah State is good and all, but I hate the number that has been put out on this game favoring them at -23.5. Last December New Mexico State beat the Aggies, 26-20, on a neutral site. The number seems a bit of an overreaction after New Mexico State lost two games they were not favored to win, and Utah State matched up with Michigan State quite well. If this line goes over 24 I’ll have to investigate taking the Aggies here.

UTEP at UNLV, 9 p.m. ET, SportsNet SW: UTEP is terrible and near last in every single indicator for college football success. UNLV somehow ran for 308 yards against USC last week, and UTEP gave up 318 yards rushing against Northern Arizona in week 1. No mysteries here, as UNLV should roll in this one and cover any number. I’d buy down to 24 though, just in case.

Sacramento State at San Diego State, 9 p.m. ET: No line is out for this game yet, but San Diego State underperformed in their week 1 game against Stanford. I’d look for a bounce back here and for the Aztecs to take out all of their frustration on the Hornets in week 2.

UConn at Boise State, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPNU: There is no line out for this game yet, but expect a blowout with UCF handing the Huskies a 56-17 loss last week. The Boise State defense was in full display in their dismantling of Troy, and I expect more of the same here. Take caution on the total as UConn could fail to do their part in breaching a total for an Over call.

San Jose State at Washington State, 11 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network: San Jose State is not good at defense and will face Mike Leach and his Air Raid offense at Washington State in week 2 after giving up 44 points to FCS team, UC Davis. The oddsmakers smell a blowout too, with an opening line of -35.5 favoring the Cougars. I don’t like the hood there, but I do like the total, which sits at 62 for this game at 5Dimes. The Cougars likely drop 50+ here and a few late scores should get this game over the total.

Rice at Hawaii, Sunday, 12 a.m. ET: I’ll be writing up this game as a feature for SBR later in the week. The overreaction is complete with the Rainbow Warriors opening as a 17.5-point favorite over the visiting Owls. Rice can score and is 7-0 ATS against Hawaii.

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