Most Inflated Week 3 College Football Odds Due to Week 2 Results

Willie Bee

Monday, September 8, 2014 8:20 PM GMT

Early college football odds are out for the upcoming week, and SBR is taking a look at a few games that may have inflated spreads based on performances from this past Saturday.

So, what have we learned two weeks into the college football betting season? Better yet, what do the oddsmakers think bettors have learned so far?

Knee-jerk reactions are common among fans and the general public going to wagering windows. Ol' John Q. sees that Amalgamated Tech kicked State U's butt last week, so he figures the same thing will happen again this Saturday when they take on the University of What's Happening Now.

The folks in Vegas and at offshore sportsbooks -- at least, the successful ones -- have understood this phenomenon for years, and they're looking to exploit that thinking once again.

 

Can The 'Not So B1G' Recover From Poor Week 2 Showing?
Bloodied and battered by several high-profile losses last Saturday, the Big Ten Conference, redubbed Not-So-B1G by one ESPN talking head, has a lot of work to do if it is going to have a place at the College Football Playoff table. Both Michigan State and Ohio State dropped out of the top 10, the Spartans now at No. 13 as the highest-ranked school in the league, and that's not going to impress the committee which will decide the four playoff squads.

Michigan State gets a week to recover from its 46-27 defeat in Oregon, but the Buckeyes are going right back to work following a 35-21 upset loss to Virginia Tech. Ohio State closed as 10 point chalk against the Hokies, and was driving for a potential tying score before everything blew up in QB JT Barrett's face when his third interception went back the other direction for a Va Tech touchdown.

Urban Meyer's club will now try to regroup against a Kent State club that is winless in two attempts, and the Buckeyes opened as 29.5 point favorites to extend the Golden Flashes' skid to three. This spread is sure to climb into the low-30s by kickoff, and at some point it will cross the threshold that makes Kent State the right play. But for now, the inflation is on the underdog price with the oddsmakers giving the Golden Flashes too much credit. Grab OSU for your College Football picks now before the spread climbs.

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'Horns, Bruins Make For Intrigue In Arlington
Count me among those guilty of falling for an inflated price on Texas last week. The Longhorns opened as field goal favorites vs. BYU before SBR's live College Football odds closed them -1, and the Cougars steamrolled Texas for a 2nd-straight year, 41-7.

Charlie Strong and Co. now have to travel up I-35 to Arlington for a matchup with Jim Mora and the UCLA Bruins. This was sent out -7 on the Bruins, but has already inched up to 7.5 or 8 at many outlets.

I was also wrong about the Bruins last week, specifically their defense being able to control Memphis' offense out in Pasadena. But just a week after a solid performance at Virginia, the UCLA stop unit was something of a sieve in allowing the Tigers to roll up 469 yards and 35 points. Is this the week the Bruins put it all together? Maybe, maybe not, but once again I find the underdogs in this battle to be getting too much respect, and the points given to Texas won't be inflated until the 'Horns are receiving at least 10.

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Aggies Rolling Along Without Johnny Football
It has been a fantastic start to life without Johnny Manziel in College Station where the Texas A&M Aggies have come out of the gate with two impressive wins to begin 2014. First came the 52-28 upset at South Carolina, and there was no let down last week in a 73-3 cakewalk past Lamar.

The victories have lifted Texas A&M to No. 7 in the AP Poll after sitting 21st in the preseason rankings, two writers even voting the Aggies No. 1 on their ballots. Now that's what I call inflation.

We'll preview this week's battle between A&M and Rice a bit later this week, and unless I talk myself out of it before then, I like Rice and the points. The spread started at 30 and has since grown to 31 1/2 on sportsbook like 5Dimes.

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