Skip to main content
Luke Altmyer of the Ole Miss Rebels hands Zach Evans the ball against the Central Arkansas Bears at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi.  Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images via AFP.
Luke Altmyer of the Ole Miss Rebels hands Zach Evans the ball against the Central Arkansas Bears at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi. Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images via AFP.

Mississippi State and Ole Miss have each secured bowl eligibility, but that won't diminish the stakes in Thursday's Egg Bowl. Check out our top Mississippi State-Ole Miss college football picks and predictions for Thanksgiving Day.

Amid reports of Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin preparing to leave the Rebels for the Auburn Tigers, which Kiffin has refuted, the Bulldogs enter Thursday's annual showdown as slight road favorites. Both teams have been on a slide in the second half of the season, though Mississippi is coming off of a 56-7 rout of East Tennessee State while Ole Miss was handed a 42-27 loss by Arkansas last week.

Here are our Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss college football picks for Week 13 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 13.

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Game Info

Date: Thursday, Nov. 24, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Weather: 45 degrees, 87% chance of precipitation, 6-mph winds

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Odds

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Analysis

The Rebels opened as 3.5-point favorites, but they are now just favored by 2.5 at all the major sportsbooks except FanDuel where they are favored by a field goal. On pregame.com, an overwhelming majority of bettors are backing Ole Miss to cover. The school is getting 70% of the cash and 51% of the tickets.

As for the total, it opened at 63, and it has dropped consistently since. Perhaps it is because of the weather, or perhaps it is just because of the history of the series. The total is now 59 at DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Pointsbet. Under bettors would be wise to target the 59.5 on FanDuel. The Under is generating 60% of the cash and tickets.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Picks

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss ATS Pick

Ole Miss -2.5 (-110) ★★★

The Rebels have lost three of four, but two of those losses were to LSU and Alabama. Yes, they looked horrible last week against Arkansas, but the Razorbacks desperately needed a win for bowl eligibility.

The Bulldogs have lost three of their last four SEC matchups. They have yet to win a road game in conference play, losing the three matchups by an average of over 16 points per game.

With this line below the key number, it seems as though oddsmakers are pushing for bettors to take the Rebels. We recommend taking the bait because of what the Rebels have done all season long, not just last week. 

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss O/U Pick

Under 59.5 (-110) ★★★

The Under has hit in each of the last five meetings between these two teams. While both groups are averaging over 33 points per game, their defenses are each only allowing 24. 

Despite the solid season numbers, the Rebels have allowed an average of 35.8 points in their last five games. However, the Bulldogs’ offense hasn't shown much potential to score that many points against a quality opponent. In their last two road SEC games, they have combined for 23 points.

The determining factor, however, could be the weather. It is supposed to rain all day and night in Oxford, which means the field conditions are going to be a serious problem for both offenses. 

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Prop Pick

Ole Miss to finish with 21-30 points (+210) ★★

Looking at what these two teams have done lately, there is a lot of value in taking Ole Miss to score between 21 and 30. The Rebels have scored 27 and 24 in their last two games, while in their two games prior to that they scored 31 and 20.

The Bulldogs' defense has not been as bad as their last five games have shown. Against Auburn, they led 24-6 before imploding to let the Tigers finish with 33. Then against Georgia, they trailed just 17-12 at the break before the wheels came off again in the second half.

Finally, in the Bulldogs’ three road losses this season, they have allowed 30 to Alabama, 27 to Kentucky, and 31 to LSU. This number is right in line with what both of these teams have been doing all season long, and the value is simply too good to pass up.

Where to Bet on Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss picks made 11/21/2022 at 4:57 p.m. ET