Our Middle Tennessee State-Western Kentucky prediction based on the best college football odds heavily looks at the Hilltoppers’ offensive prowess in home games so far this season.
It’s 100 Miles of Hate on a Thursday night in Western Kentucky (2-2) as the Hilltoppers look to make it five in a row against their Conference USA rivals.
Does Middle Tennessee (1-3) have what it takes to slow down the Hilltoppers?
(Odds updated Sept. 28 at 11 a.m. ET)
|Favorite ATS||Western Kentucky -6.5 (-110)||Western Kentucky -6.5 (-110)||Western Kentucky -6.5 (-105)||Western Kentucky -6.5 (-120)||Western Kentucky -6.5 (-110)|
|Underdog ATS||Middle Tennessee +6.5 (-110)||Middle Tennessee +6.5 (-110)||Middle Tennessee +6.5 (-115)||Middle Tennessee +6.5 (+100)||Middle Tennessee +6.5 (-110)|
|Favorite ML||Western Kentucky -250||Western Kentucky -255||Western Kentucky -255||Western Kentucky -255||Western Kentucky -250|
|Underdog ML||Middle Tennessee +205||Middle Tennessee +205||Middle Tennessee +200||Middle Tennessee +184||Middle Tennessee +210|
|Over||O60.5 (-110)||O60.5 (-110)||O60.5 (-105)||O61 (-110)||O60.5 (-110)|
|Under||U60.5 (-110)||U60.5 (-110)||U60.5 (-115)||U61 (-110)||O60.5 (-110)|
Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky prediction: Week 5
Western Kentucky -5.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
The Hilltoppers boast the third-best adjusted offensive efficiency in Conference USA and rank 62nd in the nation in the category. WKU has been particularly strong offensively during home games in 2023, scoring 40-plus points against both South Florida and Houston Christian.
Middle Tennessee ranks 108th in the FBS in adjusted defensive efficiency, fourth from the bottom of C-USA. The Blue Raiders are particularly susceptible to giving up production through the air, as they've allowed 258.3 passing yards per game in 2023 (92nd in FBS). the Hilltoppers boast a top-40 passing offense, putting up 269.3 passing yards per game behind the dynamic Austin Reed at quarterback.
The Blue Raiders are 0-2 in road games during 2023 and haven't won in Bowling Green since 2012. WKU has claimed a 17-plus-point victory in this game during consecutive years. The Hilltoppers have also covered the spread in their only home game against an FBS opponent so far in 2023, beating USF 41-24.
South Florida boasts a slightly better defense than MTSU, so we look for Western Kentucky to put up similar offensive totals in this matchup. The Blue Raiders rank 91st in offensive efficiency in the FBS, and they shouldn't be able to stay within a touchdown if WKU plays up to its offensive capabilities.
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Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky best odds
The precipitous decline in the point spread since it opened at WKU -8.5 has created quality odds across the board for Western Kentucky backers at the top Kentucky sports betting apps. FanDuel is the one spot to avoid at current odds, as you’ll pay a premium of -115 to support the Hilltoppers on the spread. Everywhere else lists WKU at -5.5 with -110 odds.
We’re comfortable taking Western Kentucky up to -6.5 as a three-star recommendation. If the line dips to -3.5, we recommend WKU as a four-star play barring any notable changes to the injury report.
Middle Tennessee-Western Kentucky prediction made Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky odds
Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky odds analysis
Western Kentucky opened as an 8.5-point favorite, but that number has been decreasing sharply down to -5.5 across our best live betting sites. Currently, 73% of wagers have come in on the Hilltoppers, likely due to the favorable line movement.
The total opened at 61.5 and has dropped to either 60.5 or 61 across the list of marquee Kentucky sportsbooks. The Over is drawing 52% of wagers.
Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
- Where: L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY
- How to watch: CBS Sports
- Weather: 76 Degrees, 6 mph winds, 19% Precipitation
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