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Middle Tennessee vs. Miami Picks, Predictions College Football Week 4: Can Blue Raiders Hang With Hurricanes?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 23, 2022 7:16 AM EDT • 2 min 26 sec read.

Tyler Van Dyke of the Miami Hurricanes warms up prior to the game against the Texas A&M Aggies.
Tyler Van Dyke of the Miami Hurricanes warms up prior to the game against the Texas A&M Aggies. Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images/AFP.

The Miami Hurricanes look to rebound from their first loss of the season, and they'll attempt that against a Middle Tennessee team on a two-game winning streak. We're breaking down the betting with our Middle Tennessee-Miami picks.

Miami fell from No. 13 to No. 25 in the AP poll after it was humbled during a 17-9 loss at Texas A&M in prime time last week. Meanwhile, James Madison routed Middle Tennessee 44-7 during the Dukes' first game at the FBS level. But the school has since rebounded with two straight victories by a combined 58 points.

Here are our top picks for the Middle Tennessee-Miami Week 4 college football matchup (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Middle Tennessee vs. Miami Picks

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Middle Tennessee vs. Miami ATS Pick

Middle Tennessee +26.5 (-110) ★★★

Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill is tied with Minnesota's P.J. Fleck for the most wins as an underdog (14) at the FBS level since 2017. Stockstill is familiar with Miami head coach Mario Cristobal when the latter was at FIU. He owns a 4-2 head-to-head advantage. 

The Blue Raiders aren't likely to pull off an outright upset, as they're 0-20 against AP-ranked opponents since 1999. But Stockstill will prepare them well, and the team should be competitive.

Additionally, the Blue Raiders can move the ball in this matchup behind quarterback Chase Cunningham and his 73.0 completion percentage.

Middle Tennessee vs. Miami O/U Pick

Over 53.5 (-107) ★★★★

Entering their Week 3 game against the Aggies, the Hurricanes were one of eight FBS teams averaging 50 points per game and scoring 4.0 points per drive, ranking first in the ACC. Miami was also converting 67% of its third-down opportunities, which was tied for third in the FBS. 

Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was humbled at College Station, going 3-for-11 on pass attempts traveling 15-plus yards downfield. The Hurricanes became the second AP-ranked team to score fewer than 10 points against Texas A&M during the Jimbo Fisher era.

However, the Blue Raiders won't provide the same resistance, and Miami's offense will be much more comfortable at home than in a raucous road environment.

Middle Tennessee vs. Miami Prop Pick

First-half spread: Over 28.5 (-110) ★★

The Over is 4-0 during Miami's last four games following a straight-up loss, and it's cashed in four of the program's previous five home games. Expect Cristobal's team to be ready to play in the first 30 minutes after a Week 3 disappointment.

Where to Bet on Middle Tennessee-Miami Picks

Middle Tennessee-Miami picks made 9/23/2022 at 5:44 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.