Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction, Tonight: Week 6 Picks & Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 4, 2024 6:00 PM EDT • 4 min 25 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Michigan State's Aidan Chiles is tackled by Ohio State's Sonny Styles. We're fading the Spartans in our Michigan State vs. Oregon prediction. — Michigan State's Aidan Chiles is tackled by Ohio State's Sonny Styles. Photo by Nick King/Lansing State Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

A struggling Michigan State team heads west to Autzen Stadium in Eugene to take on Oregon on Friday at 9 p.m. ET (FOX) in a Big Ten clash.

Michigan State hasn't played in Eugene in a decade as it gets set to play College Football Playoff odds odds favorite Oregon
A win for the Ducks could help them climb the college football championship odds, where they sit behind Alabama, Ohio State, and Texas
If Dillon Gabriel has another strong outing, he'll rise up the Heisman Trophy odds

Our Michigan State vs. Oregon prediction, part of our college football Week 6 predictions, analyzes why the Spartans will cover the big spread in their first home game as a Big Ten Conference member.

Be sure to also check out our Michigan State vs. Oregon player prop bets and the rest of our Big Ten predictions for Week 6.

Michigan State vs. Oregon odds movement

Oregon opened as a 24.5-point favorite at our college football betting sites. The line has seen little movement but has dipped down to -23.5 ahead of kickoff.

The Ducks have 53% of the money on them covering, with 47% on Michigan State. The Over has 62% of the money, with the total hovering around 52.

Best Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Against the spread pick: Oregon -24 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Michigan State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop pick: Montorie Foster Under 36.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction against the spread prediction: Week 6

Oregon to cover the spread: -24 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michigan State vs. Oregon opening odds:

Michigan State: +24.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Oregon: -24.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Spartans head coach unsuccessful against the Ducks

Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith is very familiar with the Ducks, having come from Oregon State. His Beavers went 0-3 in road games in the Civil War rivalry during his tenure, getting outscored by 47 points in that span.

In addition, his Oregon State teams topped 10 points just once in those three games, and many of those had more talent at the skill positions than this Michigan State squad has.

Oregon is starting to play its best football

The Ducks have fallen from a preseason ranking of No. 3 down to No. 6 despite their undefeated record, as their early-season performances have been less than inspiring.

Oregon won home games against Idaho and Boise State by a combined 13 points but have since hit their stride, with a +56 point differential in wins over Oregon State and UCLA.

Oregon’s defense did not allow an offensive touchdown last week and, at one point, forced a turnover and three consecutive three-and-outs in a four-drive span. And after making stops at UCF and Oklahoma, Dillon Gabriel is finding his footing in the Ducks offense.

Gabriel has completed 83.3% of his passes in three of four games, finished with a QBR of 83.4 or better in back-to-back weeks, and has a 9-1 TD-INT ratio this year.

Oregon’s defense should dominate

The Ducks defense enters this game ranked in the top 25 in Standard Downs and Passing Downs Success Rate. They lived in UCLA’s backfield last week, forcing seven tackles with four sacks while limiting the Bruins to 26:30 in time of possession.

That elite defense is why Rob Paul expects Chiles to throw multiple interceptions for the Spartans as part of his college football Week 6 expert picks.

Michigan State is likely going to need plenty of touchdowns to keep pace with the high-powered Ducks. However, Michigan State ranks 126th out of 134 FBS teams in Finishing Drives, producing just seven points in its last four red zone trips (the one touchdown it scored came on a drive that started at the opponent’s 12-yard line).

Oregon has covered just one of four games this year, but I expect it to have plenty offensively to cover a big spread against a Spartans team that has averaged just 13 points per game over the last two weeks.

Several of our other top sports betting sites are juiced to -112 or higher to back the favorites, or offer a spread of -24.5. Thus, the best price and number are at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would profit $9.09.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction prop pick for Week 6

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Montorie Foster Under 36.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Considering he has been picked off eight times, backing Aidan Chiles' Over 0.5 interceptions is the easier play. However, those odds are at an unappealing -213, so I am fading Michigan State’s passing game with a wager that returns much more value.

Montorie Foster is Michigan State’s second-leading receiver in yards (217) and leading receiver in receptions (19), six more than any other Spartans receiver.

That will likely draw the defensive assignment of cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who leads the Ducks in passes defended on a defense that ranks third nationally in that category.

Foster had gone Over this projected total in three consecutive weeks before being held to two catches and 17 yards against Ohio State. I expect him to have a similarly frustrating day, especially since he is not a big-play threat. His longest reception thus far is 16 yards.

Caesars has a slightly lower O/U of 34.5, so the best number for Under backers is at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would profit $8.77.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Michigan State vs. Oregon game info

When: Friday, Oct. 4
Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
Where: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)
How to watch: FOX
Weather: 63 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph NW
Favorite: Oregon -24 (-115 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”