Michigan State v. Penn State Cappers' Round Table

SBR Staff

Thursday, November 27, 2014 3:14 PM GMT

The Michigan State Spartans face off against the Penn State Nittany State Lions for Rivalry Weekend and we've got you covered with our complete cappers' betting preview to aid your college football picks. 

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Handicapper Matt Jordan:
Sparty hasn't slowed down at all since the crushing loss to Ohio State. It wins by 17 and earns a nice bowl bid, perhaps the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. 

ATS
How much motivation will either side have here? The Spartans can't win the Big Ten East Division but could improve their bowl prospects with victory No. 10. Penn State is already bowl eligible but laid an egg last week in a loss at a bad Illinois team. These teams didn't play last season. Sparty opened at -13.5.

Total
Total of 45. What happened to Penn State sophomore QB Christian Hackenberg? He was thought to perhaps be the best QB in the Big Ten this season but has very much regressed without former Coach Bill O'Brien around. The Nittany Lions scored just 14 points last week at a bad Illinois team and 13 a few weeks ago on a terrible Indiana defense. We all know how good MSU's defense is and the Penn State unit is very solid as well. Under here.

Free College Football Pick: Michigan State -13 & 'Under' at 5Dimes

Michigan St. Faces Penn St. for Spot in Big Ten Championship

Handicapper Ross Benjamin:
Any underdog of 10.5 to 21.0 (Penn State) that's scored 7-points or less in the 1st half during each of their last 2-games, versus an opponent that led by 17-points or more at halftime of their previous game, has gone 31-10 ATS (75.6&) during the past 10-seasons. For your college football picks play on Penn State plus the double digit number over Michigan State.

Any road team (Michigan State with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, that outgains their opponents by an average of 125-yards or more per game, and outgained their previous opponent by 225-yards or more, has seen 40 of those 53-games (75.5%) stay under the total during the past 10-seasons. Play on Michigan State and Penn State to stay under the total.

ATS
This is a Michigan State team that's 9-2, and their only tow losses came against Ohio State and Oregon. Those two opponents have combined to go 20-2 in 2014. You can certainly make the case that the Spartans are the best 2-loss team in the country. The Nittany Lions are coming off a 16-14 upset at Illinois last Saturday that dropped their record to 6-5 on the season. Regardless of the disparity in these teams records, playing at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania is never an easy game for visiting teams.

Total
Penn State has seen 7 of its last 10-games stay under the total. The Nittany Lions have been offensively challnged at time this season and it won't get any easier in their regular season finale versus a stout Spartans defense. The Penn State defense has been outstanding this season. They've held 9 of their 11-opponents to 24-points or less. You don't associate high scoring games with Michigan State football in recent years. However, the Spartans saw 8 of their first 9-games this season go over the total. They returned to some sense of normalcy in their last 2-games which both went under the college football odds total.

Free College Football Pick: Penn State +13 & 'Under' 

 

Handicapper Jeff Grant:
The talent level disparity in this matchup is the true story, as the Spartans are one of the top teams in the Big Ten, while the Nittany Lions need some time to build depth on their roster. Lay the points.

ATS
Michigan State has done a nice job of bouncing back from suffering a loss in its biggest game of the year against Ohio State, while Penn State has failed to beat any quality opponents under first-year head coach James Franklin. The Spartans are worth a long look due to their 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS mark as road favorites since 2012..

Total
It’s not surprising the UNDER is 7-4 in the Nittany Lions’ 11 games this season, as their defense has allowed just seven plays of 30 or more yards, while quarterback Christian Hackenberg has thrown for seven touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

Free College Football Pick: Michigan State ATS & 'Under'

 

Handicapper Dave Lawrence:
Hard to rock with Penn State here given how badly Hackenberg is struggling. hasn't completed more than 12 passes in 3 weeks. 50-113, 2 TD, 5 INT in last four games. Michigan State is in a different class. They win and cover.

ATS
This is a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions. Michigan State has beaten everyone except Oregon and Ohio State. They've won by a margin of 19.3 points per game. They are laying two touchdowns against a team that has lost five of seven and played poorly in most of those games. Take the Spartans.

Total
This looks like an under. Penn State is averaging just 17 points per game over their last seven and that's against weaker opponents. Sparty will muzzle them again and keep this low scoring.

Free College Football Pick: Michigan State -13 & 'Under' at The Greek