Michigan State Spartans College Football Betting Schedule Analysis

Steve - CollegeFootballWinning.com

Friday, May 15, 2015 3:48 PM GMT

This college football handicapper shares valuable betting insight regarding Michigan State & their coach, Marc Dantonio, as well as the Spartans' betting trends, stats & more. 

Mark Dantonio has been Michigan State’s head coach since 2007. Overall, he has been a profitable coach against-the-spread (ATS in college football odds), beating the betting line at the rate of 56.31%. College football handicappers should note that there is, however, a sharp difference between how Dantonio does at Home versus Away. He has a losing ATS record at Home, being profitable for just three of his eight seasons in East Lansing. Away from Spartan Stadium is where his Spartans crush the number. In MSU’s last pure Away games (i.e. games neither played at Home nor at a neutral site), the Spartans are 14-3-1 (82.35%) ATS! Using opponent-specific betting data, what follows is a 2015-2016 Michigan State football betting schedule analysis that is based on Coach Dantonio’s time as the King of Sparta.

 

DATE

OPPONENT

LOCATION (STADIUM)

NOTES (Michigan State Under Mark Dantonio)

09/04/15

Western Michigan

Kalamazoo, MI

(Waldo Stadium)

MSU is 3-5 ATS in season-openers. Dantonio is no stranger to playing in-state opponents of non-Power Five conferences. He and his Spartans are 6-3 ATS versus the Central, Eastern, and Western Michigans of the world. In this case, MSU is 2-1 ATS against WMU, but that one ATS loss was the most recent meeting between the schools (2013).  It was also a season-opener.

The Totals, ranging anywhere from 44 to 55 points, have been fairly well-priced (i.e. accurate) in this series and, depending on whether one bet the opening or the closing line, the Over is either 2-1 or 1-2.

09/12/15

Oregon

East Lansing, MI

(Spartan Stadium)

MSU is 1-2 ATS versus the Pac-12, including a loss to Oregon in Eugene last season. Depending on the opening or closing line, the Over is either 3-0 or 2-1 in MSU-Pac-12 games. Last year’s contest against the Ducks easily went Over the Total (by more than two TD’s), just as more than 80% of the public betting predicted.

MSU is 7-11 ATS in games in Spartan Stadium when the betting line is less than one touchdown.

09/19/15

Air Force

East Lansing, MI

(Spartan Stadium)

Facing rush-heavy offenses is commonplace for any Big Ten defense, but Dantonio’s Spartans have never played any of the service academies, so the Falcons’ option attack will be a new challenge. Air Force likes to average around 60 running plays per game. Although Dantonio’s MSU defenses have yet to see a team run 60 running plays on them, they have faced five teams that ran the ball at least 50 times against them. In such games, MSU is 1-4 ATS, while the Over is 3-2.

09/26/15

Central Michigan

East Lansing, MI

(Spartan Stadium)

MSU is 6-1-1 ATS in the game before opening Big Ten Conference play.

The Spartans are 2-1 ATS versus CMU.  As coincidental as it may be, the magic number for this series is 16.5. When MSU won, they beat the closing spread by 16.5 points (both times). The one time they lost, MSU failed to cover the closing spread by exactly 16.5 points.

The line direction (from opening to closing) for the Total moved down all three games, but the Over was 2-0-1 in those games.

10/3/15

Purdue

East Lansing, MI

(Spartan Stadium)

The Spartans are 5-3 ATS in Big Ten Conference-openers.

MSU is 2-3-1 ATS versus Purdue, including a 1-2 ATS record in East Lansing. In fact, the last three MSU-Purdue games were Spartan ATS losses, and it was not that close: Purdue covered the spread by an average of 12.67 points per game.

For the Total, the public has done well in this series: There has been at least 70% of college football picks placed on the Over in four of the six contests. That decided majority was right all four times. (The other two times, the Total went Under).

10/10/15

Rutgers

Piscataway, NJ

(High Point Solutions Stadium)

With Rutgers as a new addition to the Big Ten, MSU only played them last year when the Spartans crushed the 24-point spread as Home favorites by 18 points, much to the delight of the 80-some percent of the public who were on MSU.

The public was not as fortunate betting the Total, as the game went comfortably Under, despite more than two-thirds of the betting public on the Over.

10/17/15

Michigan

Ann Arbor, MI

(Michigan Stadium)

Rivalry? In this series, if you bet on MSU with the opening number, you are 8-0 ATS! You are still an amazing 7-1 ATS betting the closing line (and that one ATS loss was in 2007).

The Total has shown nearly as much dominance as the spread with the Under going 7-1 on the opening line and 5-3 on the closing, despite an average of barely 26% wagering the Under.

10/24/15

Indiana

East Lansing, MI

(Spartan Stadium)

Even though MSU averages being more than a 13-point favorite when facing the Hoosiers, the Spartans are 5-1 ATS, and that includes being 3-0 in East Lansing.

Five out of the six times these two played, the public majority bet the Over, and rightfully so: The Over is 6-0.

11/7/15

Nebraska

Lincoln, NE

(Memorial Stadium)

MSU is 4-4 ATS after a bye week.

MSU is just 1-3 ATS versus Nebraska, but they are 1-1 ATS in Lincoln. Dantonio’s only ATS win against the Huskers was when his Spartans were road favorites.

The Total is split in this series, but it might be noteworthy that the posted college football odds on the Totals have been wildly inaccurate, especially when played at Nebraska. The first time the Under was right by 24 points, and the second time the Over was right by 28 points.

11/14/15

Maryland

East Lansing, MI

(Spartan Stadium)

With Maryland joining Rutgers as new additions to the Big Ten, MSU only played each of them last year, and the results were nearly identical:  The Spartans easily beat the 10.5-point spread as road favorites by 11.5 points, again delighting the 80-some percent of the public who were on MSU.

Just as with Rutgers, the public was not as fortunate betting the Total, since the game went Under despite more than 70% of the betting public being on the Over.

11/21/15

Ohio State

Columbus, OH

(Ohio Stadium)

MSU is 3-3 ATS against OSU, but the Spartans are 2-0 ATS at the Horseshoe. The spread averages being off by more than two touchdowns per game, and only two of the six games have been within a single TD of the point spread.

The Over is 3-3 in the series, but the Totals line direction (from opening to closing) has indicated the correct side in four of the last five games.

11/28/15

Penn State

East Lansing, MI

(Spartan Stadium)

MSU is 4-4 ATS in Home finales.

The last time Penn State came to East Lansing (2009) they walked away covering the spread by 25 points, even though MSU leads the series ATS by a score of 3-2. The loss was Dantonio’s second-worst ATS margin of loss at Home as the Spartan head coach.

The Total has been remarkably accurate, especially lately. In each of the last two games, the closing Total was off by just half of a point. Depending on when one bet the Total, the Over is either 3-2 or 4-1 (but the margin was thin either way).

©CollegeFootballWinning.com