Michigan St. +13.5 the College Football Pick Against Untested Ohio St.

Teddy Covers

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 8:17 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2015 8:17 PM GMT

Michigan St & Ohio St meet on Saturday and we are more than excited for this showdown. Join our college football odds analysis and college football picks and make some extra profits this weekend.

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Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Lines: Buckeyes -13.5, O/U 52.5
The Michigan State Spartans have most assuredly NOT been an ATS success story this year, covering only three pointspreads in their first ten games. But Michigan State’s repeated ATS failures has come entirely as chalk; just 2-7 ATS when laying points. And most of those ‘laying points’ ATS failures have come in the ‘double digit favorite’ range – five of their seven ATS losses have come when laying -12 or more. Their only SU loss all year came via an incorrect referee decision coupled with a late game collapse, blowing a two score lead in the final two minutes against Nebraska.

That national TV loss to the Cornhuskers has left Mark D’Antonio’s squad as an undervalued commodity. They bounced back strong with a win and cover against Maryland last Saturday. Spartans QB Connor Cook got banged up in that game, but all indications are that the NFL bound senior QB should be good to go on Saturday. Even with Cook’s injury, Michigan State is as healthy as they’ve been since September, after suffering an ugly barrage of early season injuries.

 

Betting Momentum
When a team wins and covers one week, they attract the bettors who supported them the previous week, and bring on some new supporters as well. When a team fails to cover the spread, their supporters get burned and many potential new supporters aren’t quite as interested in backing them. Over a one or two week span, this won’t have a major effect on the college football odds. But when it happens over and over, week after week, the books adjust to the market, not to their own power ratings. And that’s exactly what’s happened here. Ohio State has covered three of their last four, blowing out the likes of Illinois, Penn State and Rutgers. Michigan State has cost their backers repeatedly. And that’s why we’re looking at a pointspread just shy of two touchdowns here, despite the fact that this has been an extremely competitive series in every recent meeting.

The results don’t lie. In four meetings over the last four years, each team has won in straight up fashion twice. Ohio State won by 12 against Michigan State last year on their way to the national title; not enough of a margin to cover the inflated spread this year. Michigan State won by ten the year before that. The two previous meetings were both down-to-the-wire affairs, decided by one and three points. Plain and simple, there’s no blowout recent history between these two elite squads.

 

History & Trends
To say that Mark D’Antonio has been a good road underdog is something of an understatement. The Spartans covered wire-2-wire at Michigan in their lone previous try in this role this year – they didn’t need the bizarre final botched punt to reward their supporters. Dating back to the start of the 2012 season, Michigan State is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog. The lone ATS loss – at Oregon – came in a game where Michigan State was winning SU in the second half before a barrage of turnovers. Taking points with the Spartans is a clear choice for this bettor!

There’s one last key rationale here. I’m not selling Ohio State short, by any stretch of the imagination; a team that my clients and I rode repeatedly down the stretch last year on their way to the national title. But Ohio State really hasn’t been tested all year, facing a remarkably weak slate thusfar. Their ‘signature’ victories have come against the likes of Penn State and Virginia Tech, not exactly elite competition. Michigan State has already battled Michigan on the road and Oregon at home – they’re far more battle tested than the Buckeyes. I expect that to matter on Saturday afternoon, but, at this moment, it definitely matters for our college football picks.  

Free College Football Pick: Take the Spartans +13.5 at BetOnline

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