Miami Hurricanes vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Free NCAA Football Pick

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 8:17 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2016 8:17 PM UTC

Our College Football handicapper looks at this game and finds a well-rested team as a home underdog. What's not to like? Read on and get his exclusive free college football pick.


2016 College Football Record: 20-24-2, -6.50 Units

The last ten picks have me firmly in FadeWatch territory, but as always, seasons are a grind and this serves as a reminder not to try to make it all back on a “lock” or single pick you think is the shit. That said, I believe we have a line available on Saturday that leads to as confident a pick as I’ve made this year.

Notre Dame finds itself this Saturday as a rare home underdog. The 2-5 Fighting Irish are getting 2.5 points at Bovada as they host the 4-3 Miami Hurricanes. Notre Dame is coming off of a needed bye week which finds their injury report a little shorter than normal. The Miami Hurricanes played last Saturday and were blasted 37-16 by Virginia Tech on the road. This is the second week of another long road trip for the Hurricanes, who have lost two games in a row after a back-breaking 1-point loss to their intrastate rival Florida State Seminoles.

Miami’s recent slide can be attributed in part to some big issues on the offensive line, which has allowed defenses to harass quarterback, Brad Kaaya, without end. In the last 3 games combined, Kaaya has been sacked 13 times. He’s basically running for his life right now, and Notre Dame would be wise to keep the trend going. The Miami offensive line is better at run blocking for sure, and the likely matchup that Miami would have to win in this game is their run game versus the Notre Dame front seven. Notre Dame allows 180.4 rushing yards per game, so it is possible; however, it would make their offensive attack quite one dimensional.

Not lost on me though, is that these Miami struggles have started just when the level of their competition has gone up. After being pretty heavy favorites in their first four games, all wins SU and ATS, their last three losses have been against conference competition.

Notre Dame on the other hand, has had a schedule full of teams in the top third of FBS standings in total defense. That includes the Duke Blue Devils, who beat Notre Dame as a 21.5-point underdog at home. Miami is ranked 12th in the FBS in scoring defense by allowing 17.3 points per game coming into this one, but I think that is inflated a bit by allowing only 3 points to Florida A&M, and 10 points each to Florida Atlantic and Appalachian State. Not exactly teams to write home about when you are Miami.

For my pick this week, I like the Irish coming off of a bye week to come up with a game plan that continues to terrorize QB Brad Kaaya, maybe forcing some turnovers in the process. Taking the more rested team in what looks to be an even matchup is also preferred. Grab the 2.5 points at Bovada and take Notre Dame as one of your Saturday College Football Picks.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the best deals!

Free College Football Pick: Notre Dame +2.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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