Mendenhall Worst Among ACC Coaches in Against the Spread Win Percentage

Thursday, June 21, 2018 4:06 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 21, 2018 4:06 PM UTC

Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall is the ACC’s most chronic underachiever against the spread. Check out his closest competition here, including a few betting situations to avoid. 

Earlier in the week, we uncovered the best ACC coaches against the spread. Now for the bottom of the list:

Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia
  • ATS Record: 11-14 (44.0 percent)
  • ATS Margin -2.92
  • Avg. Line: 5.5

Virginia's Mendenhall is having trouble translating past success at BYU in Virginia. The 2006 Mountain West Coach of the Year won conference titles in 2006 and 2007 with the Cougars. Mendenhall has tallied just eight wins total in Charlottesville and is an ACC-worst 11-14 ATS among his peers. Only four victories have come against conference opponents. Entering the third season of a five-year contract, the seat is quite warm. Particularly since Craig Littlepage and Jon Oliver, the two who lured Mendenhall away from Provo, are no longer working in the athletics department.

Where the Cavaliers fail to live up to expectations in the betting market is when facing poor defenses. They average just 22.4 points per game under Mendenhall, incapable of exploiting porous units. When squaring off against a defense allowing 25 points or more on the season, UVA is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, failing to cover a 6.0 average line by a whopping 12.5 points per game. The Cavs put up just 17.7 points per contest on 316.0 total yards. They’ve failed to reach their projected team total in all but two, coming up 8.1 points shy per outing. Ouch.

The offense returns eight starters from last season, but will break in new quarterback Bryce Perkins. The former Arizona State player is strong-armed and a dual threat with two years of eligibility left. He’ll have to work miracles to turn the UVA offense around and possibly save Mendenhall’s job.

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Monson: Bronco Mendenhall’s odd and candid comments at Virginia took root at BYU, via @sltrib https://t.co/nhqjOydBui

— percy thomas (@wingfield3) June 21, 2018
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Dino Babers, Syracuse
  • ATS Record: 11-13 (45.8 percent)
  • ATS Margin -2.02
  • Avg. Line: 6.8

Babers, an offensive guru who excels at spreading the field, needs to beef up the defense, retain greater possession, and prove more efficient moving the ball to improve Syracuse’s betting market performance. Entering his third year in charge of the Orange, Babers is 8-16 SU and 11-13 ATS. The defense yields 35.4 points per game in his tenure, which allows for the ugly cover rate. In fact, the Cuse have allowed 27 points or more 16 games under Babers. They has not won any but are a perfect 8-0 SU when surrendering fewer points.

The pass defense is proving Syracuse’s weakest link. It’s allowed 9.2 and 8.1 yards per attempt in each of Babers’ two seasons in charge, ranking 125th and 109th in the FBS, respectively. Opponent passing attacks are a good measure to gauging the Orange’s success against the number. They have covered just three of 12 matchups against teams totaling more than 235 passing yards per game entering a contest. Syracuse is coming up 2.1 points shy of an 11.2 average line. It allows 42.7 points per game. Against opponents passing for less on the year, Babers’ men are 7-3 ATS, covering a 9.9 line by 5.1 points per game. The defense allows 32.3 points per game in this spot.

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Experienced OL ✅
RB @tae_strick4
Talented WRs ✅
Slayton & @robinson_alton

Only 11 more Fridays until toe meets leather ... #OITNF 🍊💨 https://t.co/C9nALiOuVl

— Syracuse Football (@CuseFootball) June 15, 2018
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Bobby Petrino, Louisville
  • ATS Record: 25-27 (48.1 percent)
  • ATS Margin -1.27
  • Avg. Line: -0.9

Since returning to Louisville in 2014 for his second stint in charge, Petrino is just 25-27 ATS, failing to cover a -0.9 average line by -1.27 points per game. The Cardinals, in fact, own a negative ATS margin in each of their last three seasons. This is largely the result of scoring inconsistency. Former Heisman-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson started in each, averaging 36.4 points per game. Fifteen times Louisville cracked 40 points in a contest, which is tough to replicate in any Power 5 conference. The market often inflated the unit’s value. Should bettors expect better from Petrino? He was 66-47 ATS in his collegiate coaching career (Western Kentucky, Arkansas, and Louisville) prior to coming back to the Cardinals, covering a -9.9 average line by 2.8 points per game. Time will tell.

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