Massive Line Move for Bruins-Sooners: Have They Gone Too Far?

Friday, September 7, 2018 12:41 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 7, 2018 12:41 PM UTC

Everyone loves the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners, but check out this gigantic shift in the NCAAF odds for Saturday’s game against the UCLA Bruins. It’s hyooge.

<p style="text-align:right"><strong><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record: 1-1 ATS (0.00 units), 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units)</em></strong></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Check UCL vs Oklahoma Odds">UCLA at No. 6 Oklahoma</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET, Norman (FOX)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Pick: Bruins</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Check This Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3449002, "sportsbooksIds":[19,238,43,93,92], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>See how well things can work if you’re willing to surf the <a href="">college football lines</a>? Just by checking out the line moves and the consensus numbers, we were able to lovingly hand-select the Washington State Cougars as a solid <a href="">NCAAF pick</a> for Week 1. And so it came to pass: Wazzu crushed the Wyoming Cowboys 41-19 as 3.5-point road faves. Even better, <a href="">they were a pick’em</a> when we went to press. Sweet, sweet money.<br /><br />Now we’re looking at the Week 2 lines here at the home office, and we couldn’t help but notice that the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners have steamed from –25.5 to as high as –31 for Saturday’s home game against the UCLA Bruins. Interesting. The consensus reports show 57.74 percent of bettors on Oklahoma, so not everyone is on the chuckwagon, but let’s see if this line has gotten too far out of line.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma!</strong></h2><p>First things first, we bring in the ESPN Football Power Index projection for Saturday’s game, and they like Oklahoma to win 95 percent of the time. That’s a lot of percent. The FPI projection translates to a vig-free moneyline of –1901 using the scrumpdiliumptious <a href="">SBR Odds Converter</a>; Wizard of Odds says that’s about the same as Sooners –25.5. Hey, that’s where they opened. Very interesting.<br /><br />So people want to bet on Oklahoma. Not exactly earth-shattering news there. The Sooners are one of the most popular college football programs of all-freakin’-time. And they put the boots to the FAU Owls last week, 63-14 as 18.5-point home faves. Nine touchdowns! Meanwhile, the Bruins lost their first game under new head coach Chip Kelly, falling 26-17 to the Cincinnati Bearcats as 14-point home faves. I’m sure there are a lot of Kelly Haters out there who enjoyed that one.</p><h2><br /><strong>Sometimes the Bear Eats You</strong></h2><p>Funny thing is, UCLA didn’t play that poorly. The yardage was about the same for both teams: 306 for the Bruins, 304 for the Bearcats. Each side produced one turnover. But Cincinnati scored what proved to be the game-winning safety in the middle of the fourth quarter. These things happen. Which reminds me, here’s an interesting tweet:</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"pt\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The difference between success and failure is ridiculously small. Chip Kelly can attest to that.&lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;22 de agosto de 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><p>Kelly was a polarizing figure when he was coaching up the Oregon Ducks, where he led the team to four straight BCS bowls before trying his luck in the NFL. Now he’s back. Success won’t happen overnight; UCLA is a few players short of competing for a National Championship, and freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has already been pressed into service after Wilton Speight hurt his back early in the second quarter against Cincinnati. But Thompson-Robinson is the future of this team, exactly the kind of dual-threat quarterback Kelly wants running the show. Things will be fine, and in the meantime, we’ll take the Bruins plus all these points.</p>
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