Massive Momentum Makes Michigan St. the College Football Pick Over Indy

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 5:59 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015 5:59 PM UTC

We’re going to examine this Saturday’s Big Ten contest between Indiana and Michigan State. Go inside to read our insightful analysis on this game which culminates with a college football pick.

Hoosiers and Spartans Big Ten Matchup
Michigan State will host Indiana in a Big Ten matchup on Saturday at 3:30 PM ET. The current college football odds at Heritage indicates that Michigan State is a 16 point favorite, and the posted total is 63.0. Michigan State has won their last six, ten of the last eleven, and fifteen of its previous seventeen games against Indiana. The last Indiana victory in this series came in 2006 when they won 46-21 at home. The Hoosiers were lambasted by Michigan State in Bloomington last year by a score of 56-17.


Meltdown versus Miracle
The Indiana Hoosiers are coming off a monumental meltdown. Last Saturday they led Rutgers 52-27 with 5:43 to go in the 3rd quarter following a 63 yard touchdown run by Devine Redding. Then the proverbial roof caved in. They allowed Rutgers to score 28 unanswered points, the last of which came on a 26 yard field goal with 0:05 left to play, and sustained a gut wrenching 55-52 loss. After getting off to an encouraging 4-0 start, Indiana has now lost three games in a row. Since 10/13/2007, the Hoosiers are 2-30 in their last 32 conference road games, and that includes losing their last eleven in a row. They’ve also gone a brutal 3-16 ATS in their last nineteen games as a conference road underdog of 17.5 or less.

If you’ve been reading my 2015 college football betting previews, then you’re fully aware that I’m not enamored with Michigan State whatsoever. Last Saturday’s miracle finish at Michigan has done nothing to change my mind. However, at this juncture, there’s an inkling of a notion in my thoughts that whispers this is a team of destiny. How else do you explain what happened on the final play of their 27-23 win at Michigan. A fumble by Michigan’s punter returned for a touchdown with no time left, are you kidding me? The Spartans are now 7-0, and four of their seven victories have come by 7 points or less. How overvalued have they been this season? I’m glad you asked. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS as a favorite this year, and have been the beneficiaries of a +9 turnover margin.


Final Analysis
I don’t see how Indiana will possibly bounce back on the road this week, following such an excruciating loss last Saturday. Contrarily, Michigan State will be exuding with confidence and momentum. The Spartans are also in need of some serious style points since they’ve fallen to #7 despite their undefeated record. I’m going to have an early lean toward the home favorite for one of my college football picks.

College Football Pick: Michigan State -16 at Heritage

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