Early Movement Gives Michigan State Added Value Over Ohio State

osu michigan state

Jason Lake

Monday, November 5, 2018 8:33 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 5, 2018 8:33 PM UTC

The No. 24 Michigan State Spartans need a win at home this Saturday over the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes – but they can still beat the college football odds with a close loss.

Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record Week 10: 12-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-2 Totals

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 24 Michigan StateSaturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, East Lansing (FOX)Free NCAAF Pick: SpartansBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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The Michigan State Spartans have pulled off many an upset since Mark Dantonio took over the program in 2007. They’ve already done it twice this year, putting away the Penn State Nittany Lions (–13.5 at home) in Week 7 and the Purdue Boilermakers (–2.5 away) in Week 9. Dantonio will get a third crack at it this Saturday when the Spartans host the Ohio State Buckeyes; at press time, Ohio State are laying 3.5 points on the college football odds board, with the early consensus reports showing 52-percent support for the Buckeyes.

This is a close call, but we’re going to recommend Sparty (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) for your Week 11 college football picks. Getting that extra half-point above the magic number 3 is just too tempting to pass up, and thanks to that early action on OSU (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS), several locations are offering a discount on the juice. A penny saved is a penny earned and all that.

The Public Gets What the Public Wants

The game couldn’t have been any closer when these two teams last met at Spartan Stadium. Two years ago, the Buckeyes came to town as 20.5-point favorites and won 17-16, after a failed 2-point attempt by MSU late in the fourth quarter. The Buckeyes were rated No. 8 for that game, too; they eventually made it all the way to the College Football Playoff, only to get shut out by Clemson in the semifinals.

Urban Meyer’s 2018 team can’t afford to slip up on Saturday if they want to make it back in. The Buckeyes threatened to go off the rails this year after Meyer was suspended for the first three games of the season, but they’ve kept it together thus far – not enough to beat the NCAAF odds, mind you. Ohio State check in at No. 9 on the S&P+ Ratings at Football Outsiders through Week 10, well ahead of Michigan State at No. 30.

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THAT’S A LOT OF HARDWARE @DantonioMark! GO SPARTANS! @MSU_Football #HEAVE #V4MSU pic.twitter.com/UUjBZXJvVW

— Kenneth Lee Brown (@SopduTheGreat) 5 de novembro de 2018
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With three losses already, the Spartans will probably have to settle for another minor bowl game – maybe the Holiday Bowl, or the Outback Bowl. But they’ve played the toughest schedule in the Big Ten thus far, while the Buckeyes have kept things cottony-soft. This figures to be another classic “fade the public” pick when these two teams meet; Ohio State is near the top of the public money charts, while MSU find themselves lumped in with the Colorados and the Cincinnatis of the FBS. Sparty might be available at a better price come Saturday morning, but you might want to lock them in at +3.5, just in case. It’s a crazy world out there, folks.

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