MAC Offers Underdog Value: Toledo vs. BGU College Football Picks

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 11:57 AM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015 11:57 AM GMT

Our college football handicapper takes a look at Tuesday’s game between Toledo & Bowling Green. Go inside to read this revealing article that culminates with a college football pick.

 

Top MAC Teams in Tuesday's Matchup
Bowling Green University will play host to Toledo in a key MAC matchup on Tuesday. The opening kickoff at Doyt Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio is slated for 6:00 PM ET. College football odds at the time of this writing indicates that BGU ranges from a 6.5 to 7.0 point favorite. Toledo has defeated BGU five straight times, and the Rockets won last season at home by a score of 27-20.

***Click Toledo vs. Bowling Green Prop Card Here***

Quality Resumes
These two teams not only post stellar conference records, but each owns a pair of wins over “Power Five Conference” schools.

Up until their 32-27 loss to Northern Illinois two weeks ago, Toledo was undefeated and nationally ranked. They bounced back from that disappointing defeat with a 28-23 road win against Central Michigan last week which improved their record to an outstanding 8-1 this season. The Rockets will only play 11 regular season games this season, and that’s due to their scheduled season opener against Stony Brook being called off due to adverse weather conditions. The equation is pretty simple for Toledo, they must defeat BGU on Tuesday, and Western Michigan in their regular season finale. In addition they’ll need either Western Michigan or Ohio to knock off Northern Illinois during the next two weeks. If that occurs, they’ll face BGU again in the MAC championship game. If any one of those scenarios fails to transpire, the Rockets will certainly be an attractive invitee to some bowl game. After all, they also own wins over Arkansas (SEC) and Iowa State (BIG 12) this season.

Similar to their opponent on Tuesday, BGU has a couple of noteworthy non-conference wins on their 2015 resume. They had road victories over Maryland (ACC) and Purdue (Big Ten). They also gave Tennessee all they can handle for almost three quarters in their season opener, before faltering down the stretch of a 59-30 loss. Their only other setback was a narrow 44-41 defeat against previously nationally ranked Memphis. The only question mark I have pertaining to BGU in this game is how motivated they’ll be. They’re already assured of playing at Ford Field in Detroit for the MAC title, and with an offense that averages 45 points per game, the Falcons will be high on a lot of bowl committee lists regardless of the outcomes in their next two games.

 

Final Analysis
This is a somewhat rare situation as it applies to a college football handicapping algorithm. BGU enters their last home game of the season having won seven in a row. They will be facing a conference opponent (Toledo) with an excellent .888 win percentage. This is just the 11th time this exact situation has occurred since 1980. Any conference favorite (BGU) of 11.5 or less, playing in their final home game of the season, and they’ve won 7 or more games in a row, versus an opponent (Toledo) with a winning percentage of .777 or better, resulted in the home team going 0-10 ATS since 1980. I’m going to lean toward using the road underdog for one of my college football picks this week.

College Football Pick: Toledo +7 at BetOnline

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