LSU vs. Auburn Betting Value Lies in Total

Willie Bee

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 12:42 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 12:42 PM GMT

A huge Saturday for the SEC West Division is capped with a prime-time battle of Tigers at Auburn where LSU comes in hoping to upset the college football odds.

In addition to drinking some wonderful beer at last weekend's Texas Craft Brewers Festival in Austin, I also happened to spend some time chatting with a couple of LSU fans. Naturally, the conversation shifted to their Tigers meeting my Texas Aggies in the final regular season contest for both schools, and their take was that game would decide the SEC West.

That would be a great atmosphere at Kyle Field on Thanksgiving, but there's still a lot of football for both teams before reaching that battle, and I can only assume that Auburn fans hope LSU is already looking past this Saturday when the two Tigers meet in a prime-time matchup on ESPN.

One of three contests this week pitting SEC West ranked teams against one another, kickoff at Jordan-Hare Stadium is set for 7 PM (ET).  SBR's live college football odds showed Auburn -9 at the outset, but the spread has since dropped to 7½ across the board with a 56 point total.

The only conference loss Auburn suffered a year ago came at the hands of LSU in Baton Rouge in Week 4. The 35-21 decision was the third-straight win for Les Miles' bunch in this series, and seventh in nine meetings vs. Auburn since Miles took over in 2005. Auburn backers grabbed the cash as 17-point underdogs, the Tigers' third cover in four meetings, and the 2013 tilt just slid past a 54-point total, leaving scoreboard bettors 4-4 O/U in the last eight get-togethers.

 

Bayou Bengals Sending True Frosh Out At QB
No. 15 in both of the latest polls, Louisiana State finds itself in 'win-out or else' mode entering this game. The Tigers already have one loss on their ledger, a 34-29 upset defeat at home to Mississippi State a couple of weeks ago, and can kiss any hopes of making to either the SEC or NCAA championship games with a second one on the first Saturday of October.

Miles, who is aiming for his 100th win at LSU in this matchup, saw his team respond in a big way in last week's 63-7 throttling of New Mexico State. Despite the final score, the Miles' 99th win in Baton Rouge got off to an very ugly start with the Tigers committing four turnovers in the first half, three of them going against QB Anthony Jennings.

Despite that, LSU still found itself with a 14-0 lead in the second quarter when Miles decided to make the change under center and go with true freshman Brandon Harris. The soon-to-be 19 year old didn't disappoint, leading the Tigers to scores on his first seven drives. Harris completed 11 of his 14 passes for 178 yards and three scores, adding two more TDs on the ground. The effort left Miles with little choice but to go with his freshman pivot at the start of this crucial matchup.

Take a Look at the Inflated Week 6 College Football Odds!

Two Key War Eagle Defenders Might Miss LSU Match
Ten spots higher in both polls at No. 5, Gus Malzahn has Auburn in great shape entering October following the Week 5 win over Louisiana Tech, 45-17. Though the Tigers failed to cover the 32 point spread, Nick Marshall and the offense did snap back from an off night a week earlier at Kansas State to remain undefeated.

Both defenses could be missing key players, which could open up the scoring in a series that has seen some low-scoring battles in recent years at Jordan-Hare. We know that LSU is going to be without starting corner Dwayne Thomas who has a torn ACL and is done for the season. The unit is likely to also be without backup DT Quentin Thomas, listed as questionable due to an arm injury.

The Loss of Dwayne Thomas is huge for LSU, but Auburn might be in even bigger trouble. Linebackers Cassanova McKinzy (concussion) and Kris Frost (knee) are both questionable, the former leading the Tigers with 75 tackles and the latter not far behind in fourth with 59.

It's supposed to be a beautiful evening for football Saturday evening, a touch of autumn in the air with the thermometer in the low-to-mid 60s for kickoff and a 12-15 mph NW wind. My free pick is based on seeing at least two defense/special team scores in this one, and that should help send the final past the total.

College Footabll Pick: LSU-Auburn Over 56 at 5Dimes
Season: 26-16-1 (+8.40)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":354503, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here