LSU, Notre Dame Facing Possible Trap Spots in Week 4 Action

Sunday, September 16, 2018 9:09 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 16, 2018 9:09 PM UTC

The Week 4 NCAAF schedule includes one game Thursday, three on Friday and 60 Saturday games featuring lined FBS teams on the betting board. Some teams, more than others, better stay focused.

NCAAF Capper Week 3 Picks Record: 3-3-1
NCAAF YTD Picks Record: 10-7-1

3 Potential NCAAF Week 4 Trap GamesNo. 10 Penn State at IllinoisFriday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448219, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,999991,169,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Why It’s a Trap: With No. 4 Ohio State up next in Week 5 at State College (Sept. 29), Trace McSorley and No. 10 Penn State could be looking past this game against Illinois (0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS in Big 10 in 2017). But with the Fighting Illini (2-1/ ATS) QB AJ Bush (leg) injured and freshman MJ Rivers (20/29, 168 yards vs. South Florida) pressed into service, this could get ugly for the Illini.

  • PENN ST 7-2 ATS L9 as road favorites

  • ILLINI 3-9 ATS L12 Big 10 games

  • PENN ST +24.6 PD was #1 in FBS in 2017

Having this one isolated on Friday and Illinois gimpy at QB, the Nittany Lions (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS), with skill guys like run-pass threat McSorley (603/5 TDs/INT) passing, 143/6 TDs rushing), junior RB Miles Sanders (295/2 TDs) and freshman WR KJ Hamler (7/129/2), the visitors should easily surpass the 40-point mark while the Fighting Illini (24.5 ppg scoring sefense, #51) will finally have their feet held to the fire vs. Penn State (16.5 ppg scoring defense, #26) after facing Kent State (2-10 SU in 2017), FCS Western Illinois and South Florida in Weeks 1-3.

Louisiana Tech at No. 6 LSUSaturday, 7 p.m. ET

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3447798, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,999991,169,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Why It’s a Trap: A conference mismatch between the mighty SEC and little C-USA in Death Valley and Tiger Stadium on Saturday between host LSU (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) and Louisiana Tech (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS), and with No. 9 Auburn up next in Week 5 at Auburn, head coach Ed Orgeron (15-7 ATS) and the Bayou Bengals may take the Bulldogs for granted.

  • LA TECH HC Holtz 44-23-1 ATS as an underdog lifetime

  • LSU 12-5 ATS L17 overall

  • LA TECH 7-1 ATS L8 vs SEC (MISS ST, 2015 lone non-cover)

  • LSU 2-4 ATS L6 non-conference

When these two met in 2009 at Baton Rouge, LSU escaped with a 24-16 victory (LSU -23) and with QB J'Mar Smith, RB Jaqwis Dancy and WRs Adrian Hardy (9/184/TD, 20.4 ypc), Rhashid Bonnette, Teddy Veal and Smoke Harris (2 TDs), Louisiana Tech will have the weapons to move the ball against the Tigers, but putting it in the purple-and-gold end zone will obviously be the key and expect the Bulldogs to shoot for the biggest upset in school history in this Pelican State date.

No. 8 Notre Dame at Wake ForestSaturday, noon ET (ABC)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448187, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,999991,169,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Why It’s a Trap: The BB&T Field site in Winston-Salem, N.C., will make this a tough place to play for QB Brandon Wimbush and independent Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS), who have tough dates with No. 8 Stanford (Week 5), Virginia Tech (Week 6) and Pitt (Week 7) next up. The Demon Deacons (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) were 3-0 ATS the last 2 years as a home underdog, but lost ATS by a hair to Boston College 41-34 in Week 3 (BC -6½) in that role with RB Matt Colburn rushing for 117 yards and a TD in the loss.

  • This will be NOTRE DAME’s first road game of 2018

  • WAKE 3-1 ATS L4 vs. NOTRE DAME

  • In 2017, host NOTRE DAME won, 48-37 (ND -15½)

  • NOTRE DAME 0-2 ATS L2 road favorite (MIA-FLA, STAN)

  • WAKE averaging 28.5 ppg (#59), averaged 34.0 in 2017, (#21)

If Wake Forest freshman QB Sam Hartman can avoid the mistakes (2 INT) and complete more passes (20/45) against Notre Dame than he did against the Eagles, then Wake may have the shot at an upset here in a game that starts a rugged stretch from here until the end for the Irish (VANDY, WAKE, STAN, Virginia Tech, PITT, Navy, Northwestern, FSU, SYRACUSE, Southern Cal), meaning a loss here means bye-bye-bye CFP hopes.

5 Potential FBS-FCS Week 4 Lookahead GamesSouth Carolina at VanderbiltSaturday, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

Why It’s a Lookahead for South Carolina: SEC East Division member South Carolina (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) has Kentucky-Missouri-Texas A&M up next in Week 5-7, so this game against Vanderbilt (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) could be a lookahead spot for QB jake Bentley and the Gamecocks. South Carolina’s scheduled Week 3 game against Marshall had to be canceled because of Hurricane Florence, so the Gamecocks will come in well-rested with the Commodores only having 6 days to work with after hosting Nevada in Week 3. SC covered ATS by a hook last year at home, 34-37 (SC -6½).

Arizona at Oregon StateSaturday, 4 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)

Why It’s a Lookahead for Arizona: The Beavers were 1-11 SU in 2017, but for Arizona (1-2 SU/ATS), with a game against ranked USC on deck in Week 5 followed by a Cal-Utah-UCLA-Oregon-Colorado-Washington State-Arizona State torrent, looking beyond Oregon State (1-2 SU/ 2-1 ATS) this Saturday tilt may be easy for QB Khalil Tate and the Wildcats, 1-3 ATS the last 4 trips to Corvallis.

McNeese State at BYUSaturday, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN3)

Why It’s a Lookahead for BYU: Tyler Mangum, Squally Canada and BYU (2-1 SU/ATS) will be coming off a Week 3 head-smash and upset in Madison, WI vs Heisman Trophy candidate Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin and have Jake Browning and No. 10 Washington in Seattle up next in Week 5, so overlooking QB James Tabary and tiny FCS side McNeese State (9-2 SU in 2017) can be forgiven, right Smitty? With the Cowboys (won 20 of L24 games) ranked No. 15 in the FCS poll and this being the first-ever meeting between these two teams, BYU best not do so.

Northern Illinois at Florida StateSaturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Why It’s a Lookahead For FSU: NIU (1-2 SU/ATS) plays in the MAC while FSU (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) plays in the mighty Power 5 ACC, and with this game at home in the friendly confines of Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, QB Deondre Francois and the Seminoles may look past the Huskies (30-11 SU L41 on road). FSU was 1-3 ATS as a home favorite in 2017 and with ACC play shifting into high gear for FSU in Weeks 5-8 (LOU-MIAMI FLA-WAKE-CLEM) for new head coach Willie Taggart (0-3 ATS) and with DL Sutton Smith (No. 1 in tackles for loss in 2017) and NIU (27-13-1 ATS L41 on road) looking for the big upset, this could be the ideal spot, especially with FSU struggling against FCS Samford in Week 2, trailing 23-21 heading into the 4Q against the Bulldogs before a 15-3 quarter (FSU -31), although the Huskies' O better wake up after scoring just 13 points in Weeks 1 and 2 (7, 6).

No. 14 Mississippi State at KentuckySaturday, 7 p.m. ET

Why It’s a Lookahead for Mississippi State: With a nightmare fall walk of Florida, No. 11 Auburn, No. 6 LSU, No. 22 Texas A&M, Louisiana Tech and No. 1 Alabama on tap, No. 14 Mississippi State (3-0 SU/ATS) may minimize this trip to Kroger Field in Lexington by upstart Kentucky (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS), who already handed Florida a slice of humble pie in Jacksonville in Week 2, beating the then-No. 25 Gators for the first time in 32 tries, winning outright as 13½-point road underdogs and getting the money as high as +430 on the moneyline. Last season in SEC East Division play, the Bulldogs throttled the Wildcats 45-7 at home (MISS ST -13½), and Kentucky won outright 40-38 in Lexington the season before (MSU -6) and these two have alternated ATS wins the last 4 meetings with the home team a perfect 4-0 ATS.

7 Possible Week 4 Letdown Games

Ohio State vs. Tulane: Urban will be back but Buckeyes off TCU in Week 3
Iowa State vs. Akron: Cyclones off Oklahoma, now Akron who upset Northwestern
Toledo vs. Nevada: Rockets coming off No. 19 Miami-Florida in Week 3
Ole Miss vs. Kent State: Rebels coming off No. 1 Alabama, their Game of Year
Oklahoma vs. Army: Oklahoma off Iowa State, now facing independent Army on road
LSU vs. Louisiana Tech: LSU off big Auburn upset, now decent in-state brawl
Houston vs. Texas Southern: Off Texas Tech pointfest in Week 3, now FCS SWAC foe

Great 8 FBS Week 4 Must-See Matchups

Washington State (3-0) at USC (1-2), Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Georgia (2-0) at Missouri (3-0), Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
Clemson (3-0) at Georgia Tech (1-2), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Texas A&M (3-0) at Alabama (3-0), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
TCU (2-1) at Texas (2-1), Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Mississippi State (3-0) at Kentucky (3-0), Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
Stanford (3-0) at Oregon (3-0), Saturday 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
Arizona State (2-1) at Washington (2-1), Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

3 FBS Week 4 Moneyline Dogs Worth Consideration?

Washington State over No. 22 USC (Open: USC -5½ -105, down to-4½ -115 BetOnline)
WAKE FOREST over No. 8 Notre Dame (Open: ND -5½, up to -7 -110, BetOnline)
KENTUCKY over No. 14 Mississippi State (Open: MISS ST -9, up to 11, BetOnline)

NCAAF WEEK 4 EARLY ATS PICKS: Penn St. -27½ vs Illinois, Miss St. -10½ vs Kentucky, TCU -2½ vs Texas (BetOnline)

comment here