LSU-Florida: Gators as Underdogs Again? More Please!

Wednesday, October 3, 2018 11:42 AM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 3, 2018 11:42 AM UTC

The No. 22 Florida Gators are rolling in dough this year, but it’s the No. 5 LSU Tigers who are favored on the Week 6 NCAAF odds board for Saturday’s marquee matchup.

<p style="text-align:right;"><strong><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks: 9-4 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-1 Totals</em></strong></p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Check LSU - Florida Odds">No. 5 LSU at No. 22 Florida</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Gainesville (CBS)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Free NCAAF Pick: Gators</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Check This Top Rated Sportsbook">Pinnacle</a><br /><br />[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3447758, "sportsbooksIds":[238,43,93,349,92], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</h2><p>Hold on a second: Didn’t we already see this movie <a href="">last week</a>? The Florida Gators helped us sweep our Week 5 <a href="">college football picks</a> by beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs 13-6 as 6.5-point road dogs. This Saturday, the Gators (4-1 SU and ATS) return to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium – all the cool kids call it The Swamp – to face their SEC rivals, the LSU Tigers (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS). And once again, it’s Florida playing the underdog role, getting 2.5 points on the <a href="">NCAAF odds board</a> as we go to press.<br /><br />Of course we’re sticking with the Gators here. The sharps have Florida in their Week 6 picks; while the consensus reports show 63 percent of bettors on LSU, the Gators opened at +3, so they’ve presumably drawn most of the money now that they’re at +2.5. Obviously we would have preferred to grab Florida right at the open, just like the sharps, but if these projections are correct, we’ve still got a healthy profit margin waiting for us at the new price.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Orange and Bluegrass</strong></h2><p>You know things are looking up when Florida is the team being projected to win Saturday’s game. Here’s the skinny:</p><ul> <li><strong>ESPN Football Power Index:</strong> Florida 58.4 percent</li> <li><strong>Equivalent Moneyline (using </strong><u><a href=""><strong>SBR Odds Converter</strong></a></u><strong>):</strong> Florida –140</li> <li><strong>Equivalent Point Spread (via Wizard of Odds):</strong> Florida –3</li></ul><p><br />The home team projected as a 3-point favorite, in a matchup of two ranked teams? Shocking, I know. But the market sees things completely the opposite way. The Tigers are undefeated thus far, with upset wins over Miami (–3 in Arlington) and Auburn (–10 at home), while the Gators did have that disappointing loss to Kentucky (+13.5 away) in Week 3. However, Kentucky have played surprisingly well this year, winning five straight and vaulting to No. 15 in the rankings. That loss doesn’t look nearly as bad in retrospect.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"pt\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Joe Burrow on 97.1 said the big culture difference between Ohio State and LSU is the food. Burrow said it's a sin to eat healthy down there. He made a salad and everyone made fun of him.&lt;/p&gt;— jbook™ (@jbook37) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;2 de outubro de 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Those Salad Days</strong></h2><p>Speaking of rankings, the advanced stats at Football Outsiders suggest the gap between these two programs isn’t as large as advertised. Their F/+ Ratings through Week 5 have LSU at No. 10 overall and the Gators at No. 21. Meanwhile, for whatever reason, the coaches don’t have Florida in their Top 25. They even gave more votes to South Florida, which is just ludicrous.</p><p>People will catch on eventually. Dan Mullen has the Gators pointed in the right direction after taking over the program from Jim McElwain last November. Meanwhile, LSU head coach Ed Oregron has admitted to reporters that he’s keeping QB Joe Burrow under wraps somewhat by not unleashing his full dual-threat capabilities, hoping to protect Burrow from injury. That’s fine against the likes of Ole Miss, but it may cost the Tigers their undefeated record on Saturday.</p>
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