Lock Arkansas State to Cover ATS vs. Texas State as Your College Football Pick

Willie Bee

Tuesday, December 1, 2015 5:57 PM GMT

Arkansas State looks to cap a perfect season in the Sun Belt Conference, and the Red Wolves are big favorites on the college football odds to get the job done against Texas State.

There are a lot of great games on Saturday's college football betting card, several of them contests that will decide conference championships like the USC Trojans going up against the Stanford Cardinal. A pair of unbeatens, Clemson and Iowa, put their perfect records on the line opposite the North Carolina Tar Heels and Michigan State Spartans, respectively. Still others involve teams still trying to reach official bowl eligibility, such as the case is with the Kansas State Wildcats hosting West Virginia.

At first glance, the matchup between the Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves wouldn't seem to have much importance at all, but that's not true. Granted, Texas State has been out of the bowl picture for a few weeks while Arkansas State has already punched a ticket to the collegiate postseason. The Red Wolves, however, would dearly love to finish off an unbeaten Sun Belt Conference slate, and the Bobcats would love to prevent that when.

Coming live at 3 PM (ET) contest from Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, and the early action on Arkansas State suggests there are very few bettors out there who think Texas State has a chance in hell to pull off the upset. The Red Wolves first went out at -21½ on SBR's live college football odds, that spread up 4 points as of midday Tuesday.

There has been a little movement on the total as well; Bookmaker hung a 67 to begin with and is now listing 69½ for the scoreboard hurdle.

It's only the third-ever meeting between the schools, and they've split the first two with home wins and covers. The Bobcats did score the upset victory last season in San Marcos, their 45-27 decision coming as 6½ point underdogs. They owe most of the outcome to then-junior tailback Robert Lowe who rushed for 236 yards and four touchdowns. The final score had more than enough to get past a 58 point total, the second consecutive 'over' in this new rivalry.

 

Bobcats Allowing 44+ PPG On The Road
This was supposed to be the year that Texas State (3-8 straight up & against the spread) finally made a step forward and played in its first Division I bowl game. The Bobcats had enough wins a year ago to qualify, but were not chosen thanks to the bowl eligibility bunch being overcrowded. This year, there won't be enough 6-win teams to fill out the bowl schedule, and the Bobcats blew their chances to get there back in November.

Dennis Franchione's squad has been horrible away from home, losing all five road games to date and failing to cover a single one. There are rumblings in San Marcos that Coach Fran's job is in jeopardy, but at a university where support among the fans and students is more the exception than the rule, the rumblings aren't loud enough at this time.

Texas State will be facing the top-scoring team in the Sun Belt, and doing so with a defense that ranks ninth in scoring defense (37.7 ppg), and even worse on the road (48.4 ppg). Not a good sign.

 

Wolves Hoping To Avoid Another GoDaddy Bowl
Three teams from the Sun Belt Conference -- and possibly four -- are going bowling, Arkansas State (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) joined by Georgia Southern and Appalachian State as the trio already locked in. A Red Wolves loss Saturday could throw them in a tie with those two for the league championship, and the Sun Belt doesn't have a tiebreaker, meaning ASU could wind up in its 5th-straight GoDaddy Bowl. A win sends the Wolves to the New Orleans Bowl opposite a side from Conference USA.

The only bad news entering this game for head coach Blake Anderson is starting left tackle Jemar Clark on the sidelines after a season-ending knee injury a week ago. The Red Wolves should be able to plug in Colton Jackson for this game without missing a beat.

The forecast for Jonesboro on Saturday looks good, sunny skies and temps climbing into the mid-to-upper 50s during the afternoon. I'm fully expecting the Red Wolves to climb at least that high on the scoreboard, whish is why I'm laying the points for me free college football pick.

College Football Pick: Arkansas State -25½ at Bet365

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