Lethal Attack Against Uninspired Notre Dame Makes Navy +14.5 the College Football Pick

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, October 8, 2015 5:23 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015 5:23 PM GMT

Our NCAAF expert provides us with a betting preview on Saturday’s game between Navy & Notre Dame. Join us in reading this highly informative article which concludes with his point spread pick.

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Midshipmen land in South Bend on Saturday
Notre Dame (4-1) and Navy (4-0) meet on Saturday for another chapter in this annual rivalry. Notre Dame has won each of the last four versus Navy. However, the last two seasons have seen some close games with plenty of entertainment. Notre Dame won 49-39 last season and 38-34 in 2013.

 

Point Spread and Total
According to the college football betting odds at “The Greek”, Notre Dame opened as a 14.0 point favorite, and has since moved to a 14.5 point chalk. The opener on this total was 54.5, and currently resides at 55.5. Each of the last five games played in this series have gone over the total, and there was a combined average of 68.4 points scored per contest.

Road Warriors
Navy will enter Saturday’s game against #15 Notre Dame with a perfect 4-0 record. Considering they’ve faced Colgate, East Carolina, Connecticut, and Air Force, this will be by far their sternest test to date. Navy has been a terrific road underdog since the start of the 2006 season. During that stretch, they’re 23-7 ATS (76.7%) and won 17 of those 30 games outright. They’re also a perfect 8-0 ATS in that exact role during the same time frame following two consecutive wins, and won six of those eight games straight up.

 

Triple Option Terror
Opposing defenses know exactly what to expect when facing Navy, and yet have had little or no success in stopping them. Since the turn of the century, Navy has regularly been one of the top five rushing offenses in the country. The Middies enter this week ranked 3rd nationally averaging 339.8 yards rushing per game. The orchestrator to their triple option attack is senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds who took over as a starter early in his frosh season, and has been there ever since. Reynolds has 488 yards rushing, ran for 9 touchdowns, and passed for two scores as well in 2015. During his illustrious collegiate career, Reynolds has amassed 3674 yards rushing, run for 73 touchdowns, and passed for 25 scores while being intercepted just 7 times.

 

Heartbreaking Loss for Irish
Notre Dame sustained a gut wrenching 24-22 loss at Clemson last Saturday night. As a result of the loss, they went from #6 to #15 in the AP Poll. “The Irish” rallied from a 24-9 fourth quarter deficit, and failed on a two point conversion with just 0:07 left to play in an attempt to tie it up. It was a valiant effort, and especially so when considering the inclement weather (heavy rain) late in that contest. Sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer continued to impress, throwing for 321 yards and two scores while recording a rushing touchdown as well.

 

Final Analysis
There’s no doubt that Notre Dame is the more athletic and physically gifted of the two teams in this contest. However, that seems to be the case for every FBS opponent that Navy faces. Based on their track record over the past decade or so, it certainly hasn’t been a deterrent to Navy’s success, and they seem to relish that role. Despite last week’s loss, it would be hard to imagine Notre Dame’s intensity level being anywhere close to what it was in that massively hyped game. I’m siding with the road underdog for one of my college football picks this week.

College Football Pick: Play on Navy +14.5 at The Greek

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