As College Football reaches the midpoint of the regular season, our expert handicapper Joe Gavazzi provides his educated insight on the teams that are bound to bounce back and why he reached that conclusion.
Hard to believe as we approach week 7 of the college football season that we are at the halfway point of the season for many CFB teams. Three weeks ago, I introduced the concept of the AFP (away from the point spread). The purpose of that article was to introduce to you the concept that early season success or failure of a CFB team led to overcompensation in the betting line. The result is we would find great value fading teams who were outperforming the line maker’s expectation, or playing on teams who were underperforming the line maker’s expectations. This concept again worked like a charm for weeks 4, 5, and 6 of the current CFB season.
Now that we have hit the midway point in the season, I will show you how you can use that same kind of contrary thinking for profit in weeks 7, 8, and 9 of the CFB season. Much like our contrary AFP thinking, this time we use the ATS results of a team, combined with their AFP, and the results of the most recent game for each team, to isolate optimum value at this point in the CFB season.
Last week, we had one qualifying team. It was the Iowa Hawkeyes, who entered their game with Minnesota at 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS, far below this year’s expectations. The Hawkeyes came off a loss as a double digit home favorite to Northwestern, failing to cover 19 points. The game opened at Iowa -2. By the time the public finished betting the game, the line was Minnesota -2 providing us with 9 points of value from where this line would have been opening week. Result: Iowa 14, Minnesota 7. An outright underdog value-laden winner.
Following is the theory that we use during this period of the season:
PLAY ON ANY CFB TEAM WHO IS GREATER THAN .500 SU FOR THE CFB SEASON, BUT 3 OR MORE GAMES BELOW .500 ATS
That premise in and of itself will produce point spread winners for you in weeks 7-9. Combine it with the parameters I am about to outline and you can strengthen your college football pick. Here is a list of the parameters that will strengthen the above situation.
1. Our team is off a SU ATS loss
2. The opponent is off a SU ATS win
3. Our team has a -50 or more AFP for the season
4. The opponent has a +50 or more AFP for the season
The more of these parameters apply the greater value in the line, and the stronger the play becomes. The chart below isolates the qualifying teams for this week with the categories that potentially strengthen the play. The teams are presented in schedule order.
The purpose of this theory is to isolate teams who had great expectations for the season, are still a winning team, but have underperformed expectations vis-à-vis the point spread. In other words, these Big Boys are due to bounce back in the immediate weeks ahead. Keep an eye on this list for not only this week, but for the weeks ahead, and you will isolate value with quality teams. Look for positive value in line 1 and the greatest divergence in the net AFP, remembering that a net AFP that is (-) normally provides the greatest value.