Key Stats Influence Idaho vs. Georgia Southern NCAAF Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 8, 2014 5:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2014 5:47 PM UTC

In forming his College Football pick for Idaho vs. Georgia Southern, this handicapper points out that one of them is so dominant at the point of attack that they will simply 'steamroll' the opposition.

This handicapper has been turning out winners with out College Football picks for over 25 years.  Key statistical indicators include finding a team who will double rush their opponent (an historical 75% chance to cover the pointspread) or a 200 Club Member, who will gain 200 or more yards BOTH running or passing while their opponent does not (a 76% historical indicator of pointspread success). 

Last week in this very spot, the STEAMROLLER was upset when Wisconsin rushed for 284 yards, but had a -4 net TO margin, a 90% indicator of pointspread failure.  In a similar way, this week’s STEAMROLLER team, Georgia Southern, failed to cover at New Mexico St. when despite outrushing New Mexico St. (405-183) and being +3 net TOs, they won the game by a score of only 36-28, failing to cover the impost.  With those improbable factors working against us last week, expect plenty of good fortune in today’s STEAMROLLER selection. 

Idaho has been a lost soul on the College Football landscape.  This year, they have matriculated to the Sun Belt, a southeastern based league, quite dichotomous to their northwest home.  This week, they make their 5th trip of more than 2,000 miles in the first 7 weeks of the football schedule, having already visited Florida, LA Monroe, Ohio U, and Texas St. prior to this trip to Georgia.  This is a team from whom little is expected as they enter the season, in the 2nd year under HC Paul Petrino, on a 3 year slide of 4-32 SU, 10-23 ATS.  In the previous 2 seasons, the Vandals have been outscored by a combined margin of 44-17.  Last year, they allowed an incredibly bad 522 yards per game and 47 PPG.  Fielding 15 RS from a team with that ineptitude is not a positive!  Adding 16 JUCOs has done little to improve their plight.  Idaho enters today’s contest at 0-5 SU.  This includes their game last week, when they were outrushed by Texas St. (390-176).  In that game, Idaho allowed 3 TD runs of 70 or more yards.  After 5 games, Idaho has allowed every opponent to score 34 or more points for an average of 38 PPG.  They are being outrushed by an average margin of 262/6.4 to 87/2.4.  Now, they must travel to Statesboro to face the No. 1 rushing team in the land. 

The high-powered, ground oriented, Georgia Southern attack is averaging 40 PPG, as well as 379/7.3 overland per game.  This explosive team trailed 14-0 at New Mexico St. last week, before scoring 29 consecutive points before taking their foot off the gas pedal.  Georgia Southern began the year 5-0 ATS, leading to this inflated price tag.  Yet, they have no qualms about running up a margin, as indicated by their earlier home field victory of 83-9 against out-classed Savannah St.  To put the abilities of this team into perspective, consider that the Eagles took ACC powers NC St. and Georgia Tech to the wire in 1 and 4 point losses earlier this season.  With a bye next week, look for Georgia Southern to leave “nothing in the bag” as they romp to an easy 4 TD+ victory against outmanned Idaho.

Free College Football Pick: Georgia Southern minus the points at Pinnacle

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