Check out our top college football picks and the Kansas State Wildcats face the TCU Horned Frogs in the 2022 Big 12 Championship Game.
No. 3 TCU beat then-No. 17 Kansas State 38-28 in late October, one of 12 wins during the Horned Frogs’ unblemished regular season. Can the (9-3) Wildcats play spoiler in the rematch in Arlington?
Kansas State vs. TCU Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 3, noon ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- Weather: Indoors
Kansas State vs. TCU Odds
Kansas State vs. TCU Odds Analysis
TCU opened as a 1.5-point favorite. The line remained there at DraftKings while moving to TCU -2 at BetMGM and TCU -2.5 at FanDuel.
The total opened at 61 and has risen to 61.5 at FanDuel. The number is up to 62 at both DraftKings and BetMGM.
Kansas State vs. TCU Picks
- Spread: TCU -1.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ★★★★
- Over/Under: Over 61.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
- Prop: Deuce Vaughn Over 107.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ★★★★
Kansas State vs. TCU ATS Pick
TCU -1.5 (-105) ★★★★
It’s almost become a weekly tradition at this point. You check the odds for undefeated TCU’s upcoming game and wonder what the sportsbooks know that you don’t: why is the number so low?
I’m asking that same question this week about the Big 12 Championship Game. The Horned Frogs already dispatched Kansas State by double-digits this season. TCU is 9-2-1 ATS, ranking an FBS third in cover rate. At 8-3-1 ATS, Kansas State isn’t far behind--but it mostly thrived against lesser competition.
The Wildcats are 0-3 outright against teams currently ranked in the Top 25; TCU is 2-0 against such opponents. As of this writing, DraftKings is the best place to attack the line on TCU, as DK has the Horned Frogs at -1.5 with -105 odds. It’s a full point better than FanDuel’s -2.5 with a negligible difference from their -104 odds.
Kansas State vs. TCU O/U Pick
Over 61.5 (-110) ★★★★
Both Kansas State and TCU have defenses ranked inside college football's Top 25 in efficiency. The two sides combine to allow an average of 46.4 opponent points per game, keeping this total from getting out of hand. However it’s hard not to think shootout when looking at these two offenses.
TCU averages 39.7 PPG with a No. 7 offensive efficiency ranking. Kansas State shows offensive punch, too, averaging 36.7 PPG against Power Five opponents. The regular-season matchup between the Wildcats and Horned Frogs garnered 66 points. I don’t see the rematch finishing any lower given that K-State, with the lesser offense, averaged nearly 40 PPG since that October meeting.
FanDuel offers the best value on the Over with -110 odds on Over 61.5; DraftKings and BetMGM offer the same -110 odds, but the number sits at 62.
Kansas State vs. TCU Prop Pick
Vaughn Over 107.5 rushing yards (-114) ★★★★
Standout Wildcats running back Deuce Vaughn cleared 100+ rushing yards in seven games this season, but only finished with 83 yards in the matchup against TCU. His efficiency, though, was excellent.
Vaughn averaged 6.9 yards per carry in the loss, his third-best YPC of the season. The problem was his limited workload--just 12 rushing attempts. It was one of only two games in 2022 where Vaughn garnered fewer than 18 carries. Given that TCU is merely a mid-pack run defense, look for Kansas State to feed Vaughn more regularly than it did in round one.
FanDuel is the best place for this wager, with Vaughn’s line at 107.5 rushing yards with -114 odds. Avoid DraftKings' line for your Over bet, as DK has Vaughn's rushing total at an inflated 119.5 yards.
Where to Bet on Kansas State vs. TCU Picks
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Kansas State-TCU picks made 12/2/2022 at 12:37 p.m. ET.