Jump on Value Price for Florida State NCAAF Odds vs. NC State

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, September 25, 2014 7:18 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 25, 2014 7:18 PM GMT

This College Football handicapper has an interesting method for predicting the most likely outcome of matches like this Saturday’s battle between Florida State and NC State. Find out all the juicy details here before making your pick.

Perception/reality games have gone 3-1 ATS this season.  In week 1, Virginia nearly ate the whole pie against highly touted UCLA.  Week 2 saw Michigan St. fall apart in the closing quarter for our only loser of the year against Oregon!  The last two weeks have first seen meaningful, rivalry underdog Purdue hang with overpriced Notre Dame.  When we shared last week's free pick, Iowa used the value accorded to them from a dichotomous start with Pitt to win the game outright.  Now, we switch gears to a rare favorite play in this column, isolating defending champion Florida St. 

Following their 14-0 SU, 11-2 ATS title season of 2013, the opening power rating soared on the Florida St. Seminoles when 13 RS were led by QB Winston, the Heisman Trophy winner.  Over confident from reading the press clippings, Florida St. has thoroughly disappointed their backers at a 3-0 SU, but 0-3 ATS start in which they have failed to cover by 45 points.  Last week, Florida St. played without QB Winston, who was suffering from disciplinary action.  As a result of "foot in mouth" disease. The result was a 23-17 survival against a Clemson team who outrushed Florida St. 101-13.  This week's public relations nightmare revolving around QB Winston is extortion/bribery claims involving the woman Winston was accused of raping in 2013.  Seething from that defeat, and with the Seminoles rallying around their battered and bruised leader, look for Florida St. to bring an all-out assault against the Wolfpack this week. 

Motivation will not be a problem against an NC State team, who has begun 4-0 SU.  That includes a tune-up against Presby last week, 42-0, with a 485-253 yardage edge.  Under 2nd year HC Doeren, that start is about as phony as it gets! For the other victims have been survivals against Georgia Southern and ODU before a romp over lowly S. Florida.  Not impressed!  Yet a strong series history that has seen NC St. cover 8 in the recent 9 meetings, including 17-16 outright on this field 2 years ago will have the antennas alerted for the visitor.  

At a value price that is nearly 2 TDs below where it would have been opening week, I step in with Florida St. as your PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK.  Adding confidence to this selection is that nearly every handicapper I have surveyed and much of the public is "squarely" on the underdog Wolfpack in this one, or at least shying away from the game.  I make this College Football pick a Pointspread Prognosis Best Bet, putting our record of 36-17 ATS, including 9-3 ATS this season, on the line at 5Dimes.     

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