College Football Week 5 is in the books, and it was a tough week for some teams like #5 Southern California, #12 Virginia Tech and reeling Florida State while #1 Alabama smashed Ole Miss, 66-3 to run its two-week scoring total against its SEC opponents to 125-3.
1—#16 Washington State May Be the Real Deal, in CFP Hunt With USC Upset
QB Luke Falk and the Pac 12’s Washington State (5-0 SU/3-2 ATS) upset #5 USC at Martin Stadium in Pullman on Friday night in an entertaining game which saw Wazoo stay in the CFP race and the Trojans and QB Sam Darnold get put behind the 8-ball. Sixth-year Head Coach Mike Leach (35-28 ATS) and the Cougars (8-5 sU, 6-6 ATS in 2016) still have a tough schedule with the Regular Season climaxing against rivals Washington in the Apple Cup on Nov. 7 in Seattle (WASH -14, Opening Line, 2017 Games of the Year Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook).
Next up for WSU is a tough one at Oregon in Eugene in Week 6 in its first Road game of the season but WR Tavares Martin (28 Receptions, 445 yards, 7 TDs, #11 in nation), Renard Bell and RB James Williams and the upstart Cougars are 7-0 ATS the L7 in this series and 3-0 ATS L3 at Oregon (375/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BookMaker) and Washington State (150/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, 5Dimes) is an amazing 10-1 ATS as a Road Underdog vs. Winning Teams Under HC Leach. Nice. Wazoo Road Overs were 10-3 the L2 seasons and when Oregon and Washington State met in Pullman last season, the Cougars rolled to a 51-33 win in a game which went 8½ points Over the posted 75½ Total and had 42 points by Halftime.
2—Utah State is An Over Team, Aggies Over 4-0 This Year, 9-2 L11 Games Overall
With its 40-23 come-from-behind win over state rivals BYU at Utah State on Friday night (USU -1, 49, BetOnline), the Aggies game went Over the Total to improve Utah State Overs to 4-0 this Regular Season in games which have seen lofty grand totals of 69, 64, 56 and 63 points. And Overs in Aggies games are now a profitable 9- 2 the L11 is our bet-worthy thought here, and looking at the big book, the Northcoast Sports 2017-18 College Football Scorebook, which has 20 years of Trends and data, we see that USU Overs are 10-5 Away the L3 years, 9-4 at Home the L3 years and the Aggies went 9-4 Over in 2015. Utah State Unders are also 5-0 at Neutral Sites the L10 years. Next up? Fifth-year Head Coach Matt Wells and the Aggies host a tough Colorado State team at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium in Logan in Week 6 MWC play.
3—Boston College is an Under Team, Especially on the Road, 38-15-1 L10+ Seasons
In a 28-8 Eagles win over Central Michigan in Week 5 at Home (Total: 50½), Boston College Unders moved to 4-1 on the 2017 Regular Season in games which have gone Under the closing Total by 14½, 12, 2 and 3½ points with the Eagles Week 3 date vs. #33 Notre Dame the only game going Over with the Fighting Irish winning 49-20 and almost going Over the posted Total themselves (52). So dating back to last Regular Season, the Under is 6-1 the L7 BC games and a deeper handicapping dive reveals Boston College Unders to be especially strong on the Road, going 2-0 already this year and 38-15-1 the L10+ years (7.17%) for the Offensively challenged Eagles who have averaged 17 and 20 ppg the L2 seasons and only 17.6 ppg so far this campaign. Next up in Week 6 for Boston College , a Homecoming game in Beantown against a mad #13 Virginia Tech side (VT 49 BC 0 in 2016; VT -6½, 41). Lean Under.
4—Louisiana Tech Trending Toward Becoming a Solid Over Team, Especially at Home
Louisiana Tech Overs are just 3-2 this 2017 Regular Season after Week 5’s 34-16 Home win over South Alabama which went Under by 8 points thanks in great part to a 9-point 2nd Quarter and a 3-point 3rd Quarter. Still, Bulldogs Home Overs were 30-21 heading into this year at Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston (8-2 Home Overs L10) where the fast-track FieldTurf playing surface and weaker C-USA Defenses add to the tendency for Overs. Next week, 5th-year Head Coach Skip Holtz and Louisiana Tech (9-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS in 2016) are at Birmingham to face UAB who haven’t played too much football over the past couple of years (LA TECH 3-0 ATS L3 vs. UAB) with the Blazers shutting down the program in the 2015 and 2016 seasons for financial reasons. Louisiana the Road Overs are 17-7 the L3 seasons (5-3 in 2014, 4-2 in 2015, 6-1 in 2016, 2-1 in 2017) so lately the Bulldogs have been a solid Over team both Home and Away. Think Over for the team with the highest average Points Above Expectations average and an offense which could possibly score 50+ points themselves against the Blazers.
5—The Crimson Wedding: Since Meeting After CSU Game, Tide D Allowed 3 Points
After a reported “Come to Jesus” team meeting after allowing 391 yards Total offense and 31 points to MWC side Colorado State in a Week 3 victory in which senior LB Shaun Dion Hamilton called for a players-only, “Come to Jesus” (Bear Bryant) meeting the following Monday which apparently lit a crimson red fire under this team’s ass. Five days after the meeting, “Morning” Bo Scarbrough and defending national FBS champions and No. 1-ranked Alabama (+258 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BetDSI) blanked SEC counterparts Vanderbilt, 59-0 last weekend before crushing Ole Miss on Saturday, 66-3 at Home in Tuscaloosa (ALA -29, BookMaker) meaning the Crimson Tide have allowed just 3 points in 8 quarters and look to be in that Darth Vader, kill-anything-that-moves mode. Have you ever seen an image of a Defense with 10 of the defense’s 11 players in on a tackle? Now you have (look below). That’s hongry man. And less than half-a-point (0.375 ppq) per quarter. And 125-3 in two games vs, decent opponents is scary.
The Crimson Tide Defense now ranks #4 in the nation, allowing 10.0 ppg after Saturday’s humbling of the Rebels. The betworthy lesson? The Alabama Defense is in a groove brother—there goes a Tide player with a 3rd Quarter Interception darting down my TV screen for realz Suzie Q—and when the Alabama Defense is generating points—there’s the Rushing TD tnto the Pick—covering ATS is much easier as the 2-0 ATS Record since the meeting shows. The Crimson Tide head to College Station in Week 6 to face Texas A&M in SEC play (ALA -15, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, 2017 Games of the Year Openers) and Alabama (ALA 3-0 ATS L3 vs. A&M) won 33-14 last season in Tuscaloosa in this spot, barely covering ATS (by 1 point) as 14-point Home chalks (ALA 33 A&M 14). QB Jalen Hurts and the Alabama Offense hasn’t been too shabby either, scoring 59+ points in back-to-back games (59, 66), so backing Bama over A&M seems wise. Vaya con Marea Carmesí.