Iowa vs. Maryland Free College Football Picks for Week 5

We've got a great Big Ten matchup this week as the 5th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes travel to Maryland to take on the Terrapins. Iowa comes into this game as road favorites but Maryland is no slouches. Based on their performance so far this season, Maryland has a case to be in the top 25 teams so this will be a great test for their program.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins

Friday, October 01, 2021 - 08:00 PM EDT at Capital One Field

Iowa Has Been Rolling This Season

So far so good for Iowa, who come into this game against Maryland as -3 point favorites on the road according to the SBR odds page. The Hawkeyes are ranked 5th in the country led by one of the best defenses in the nation.

They will certainly be tested this week by the Terrapins who are led by quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. As good as Tagovailoa has been, Iowa's defense has already faced some pretty tough competition this season and has looked elite in doing so.

https://youtu.be/80V_v4AKn9U

Most of the top online sportsbooks have this total at 45.5 for this matchup. If you're thinking that total seems low considering how good Maryland's offense has looked, there are a few things to consider here. First of all, we've mentioned Iowa's defense as being elite so far this season without much mention of their offense. The reason for that is their offense has been average at best so far this campaign.

It's not that they are bad, it's that this team will clearly only go as far as their defense can carry them. With that in mind, I'm actually betting on the total in this game. I think that has the most value since it's hard for me to know how real Maryland is with the teams they've faced so far.

This is a huge jump in terms of competition and will go a long way in terms of defining Maryland's season. They will easily move into the top 25 with a win here with many around the country feeling they should already be there.

Taulia Tagovailoa #3 of the Maryland Terrapins.Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

Value Is in the Total

I'm going with the under 46 which might not be available for much longer. Even if Maryland were to pull off the upset which is certainly possible, it will not be a high-scoring game regardless. I mentioned the strength of schedule earlier and Iowa's has been top 30 while Maryland's is a lot closer to 90-100. That said, there are ways that Maryland can hurt Iowa, starting with their pass rush. That has certainly been the weakness of Iowa's offense so far and Maryland does have the personnel to make an impact here.

Fans of the Iowa Hawkeyes. Matthew Holst/Getty Images/AFP

As for that elite Iowa defense, if they do have a weakness, it would be against the run. The Terrapins have run the ball really well this season and if they can get that going in this game, I think the under is definitely the play. If Maryland can establish the run, I see them as live dogs in this spot. Tagovailoa is dangerous and if can get support, Maryland has every chance of covering and winning outright. The thing for me is, regardless of how it goes, I don't see Iowa allowing more than 17-21 points while on offense, I don't see them getting more than 21-24 which is why the under 46 is available at BetOnline.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.