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Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Week 12 Picks: High-Scoring Battle in Norman

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Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Week 12 Picks: High-Scoring Battle in Norman
Dellarin Turner-Yell #32 of the Oklahoma Sooners. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP.

Oklahoma’s College Football Playoff hopes may have evaporated after last week’s road loss to Baylor. Will Oklahoma be able to pick itself up after last week’s disappointing loss or will Iowa State compound the problem and send the Sooners to a second consecutive loss?

Iowa State has lost back-to-back road games to West Virginia and Texas Tech and three of its four losses are on the road. The Cyclones are 4-6 against the spread and have covered the spread in two of their five road games.

Oklahoma has scored 52 points in each of its last two home games against TCU and Texas Tech and has won those games by an average of 26 points. The Sooners are 4-6 ATS and 3-3 ATS in their six home games.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 12 matchup between Iowa State and Oklahoma. (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 20, 12 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Weather: 66 degrees, partly cloudy

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Odds Analysis

Oklahoma's four-point spread is tied for its smallest spread all season. The Sooners covered as four-point favorites on a neutral field against Texas and lost outright as four-point favorites last week at Baylor. Some sportsbooks are as high as Oklahoma -5 or -5.5.

The 60.5-point total is the highest of any game Iowa State has played this year and is the fifth consecutive game Oklahoma has played in with a total in the 60s. This number is much less volatile across the sportsbooks, with some as low as 59.5 and none higher than 60.5 currently.

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Betting Picks

Iowa State +4 (-110) ★
Over 60.5 (-110) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: Wake Forest vs. Clemson Week 12 Picks

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Predictions

Iowa State +4 (-110) ★

Our one-star play on the underdogs getting the points in this matchup reflects our lack of confidence. Iowa State has not been able to win tight games on the road of late, losing to West Virginia and Texas Tech by a combined 10 points. However, it will be difficult for Oklahoma to overcome the disappointment of having its 17-game winning streak snapped, as well as the likelihood that all it has left to play for is a Big 12 Championship.

Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Oklahoma, including outright wins in two of the last five. In their previous trip to Norman in 2019, the Cyclones lost a 42-41 shootout in a game in which Brock Purdy threw for 282 yards and accounted for all six touchdowns. Thus, the Cyclones are a decent bet to keep this game close.

Over 60.5 (-110) ★★★★

In the loss to Baylor, Oklahoma's defense was mauled at the line of scrimmage, as the Bears ran for 297 yards and 6.3 yards per carry. That bodes well for the chances of Iowa State's Breece Hall to find running room. The junior running back enters the game ranked second in the conference with 1,172 rushing yards.

We also like Oklahoma's Caleb Williams to have a big bounce-back performance after throwing two interceptions last week. Entering last week, Williams led the FBS in total QBR, adjusted completion percentage, touchdown rate, and touchdown-to-interception ratio. In addition, Oklahoma's offense averaged 7.3 yards per play entering last week, the third-highest mark in FBS.

The Over has cashed in the last four meetings in Norman between these teams and is 8-2 in their previous 10 meetings overall. Thus, expect another shootout this week.

SEE ALSO: Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Week 12 Picks

Iowa State-Oklahoma picks made 11/16/2021 at 7:55 a.m. ET