Iowa -3.5 at Illinois for NCAAF Steamroller Pick of the Week

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, November 14, 2014 8:51 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 8:51 PM GMT

The Iowa roller coaster ride continues on Saturday, when they visit an Illinois team who is allowing 40 PPG in Big 10 play, as well as 335 RYPG. How will this play into the advantage of those looking to add this matchup to their college football picks?

Each week in this space, I look for one team who will dominate their opposition at the line of scrimmage.  Looking at CFB from a statistical perspective tells us that any team who outrushes their opponent by a 2 to 1 margin has a 75% chance to cover the pointspread in a given game.  In a similar way, any team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards in a given game, if their opponent does not, has a 76% chance to beat the pointspread.  Each of those parameters could come into play in a game that has outstanding College Football betting value

If the roller coaster ride for Iowa is going to continue, we are buying our ticket early!  Two weeks ago, Iowa defeated Northwestern (48-7), recording 483 offensive yards.  Last week, Iowa hit their dip, losing to Minnesota 51-14, a game in which they were outgained 429-205 and were a -3 in the net TO margin.  That combination will lose you a lot of football games.  That 38 point ATS loss has clearly aided our value in this contest.  It has also set up a situation which finds Iowa to be 21-8 ATS following a loss, including 6-0 ATS after allowing 40 or more points.  Last week was the first time that an Iowa team led by HC Ferentz, allowed more than 50 points.  After that embarrassment, expect a huge bounce back defensive performance by an Iowa stop unit that still allows just 23 PPG and 335 YPG. 

Not the same can be said for Illinois.  The return of QB Lunt is a further factor which has allowed us to retain value in this game.  The fact is, however, that Illinois is just 1-4 ATS when Lunt plays.  Of more importance is the fact that Illinois qualifies as one of our Defensive Duds.  In Big 10 play, the Illini are allowing 40 PPG and 335/6.8 running yards.  Those are numbers that can get you STEAMROLLED on any given Saturday.

Head to our College Football Handicapping Forum to chat with fellow bettors.

With the Illini defense ripe to be plucked and Iowa seething following their defensive embarrassment, look for a huge bounce back effort by Iowa as they STEAMROLL the Illini into submission.  Last Saturday, I used GA Tech as my 2014 CFB STEAMROLLER GOY.  The Yellow Jackets obeyed by stinging NC State (56-23).  Of equal importance is that they outrushed NC State 479-155. Today’s result should be of a similar ilk. 

Free Pick: Iowa -3.5

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":294382, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here