Inflated Week 5 College Football Odds

Willie Bee

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 3:43 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 23, 2014 3:43 PM UTC

Join us as we take a look at some early Week 5 college football odds that could be inflated based on results from what was another crazy week on the gridiron.

Mark Richt and the Georgia Bulldogs were in a tough spot a couple of Saturdays ago when they traveled to South Carolina to meet the Gamecocks.  Georgia had been idle the previous week following an emotional win over rival Clemson, and the Gamecocks were already in an 0-1 hole in the SEC standings after a season-opening upset loss to Texas A&M.

Just as South Carolina could ill-afford a second conference setback so early on the schedule, Richt and his Bulldogs are now in the same situation as a result of the 38-35 loss to the 'Cocks.  Georgia gets a chance to even up its SEC mark this Saturday when the Tennessee Volunteers arrive in Athens for a noon (ET) clash that can be seen on ESPN.

Georgia opened as 18.5 point chalk for the battle, that spread quickly pushed down to 18 or even 17.5 at sports books monitored by SBR's live college football odds, and we're left wondering how much of that spread is a reaction to the Bulldogs thrashing Troy in Week 4.

The 66-0 rout Georgia laid on Troy was about as one-sided affair as one can find on the Week 4 college football scoreboard.  Richt went 3-deep on his QB depth chart, and the Bulldogs used seven different backs to roll up 367 yards on the ground.

Tennessee took this past week off in advance of its conference opener, giving Butch Jones and his staff extra preparation time.  Fourteen days still isn't long enough for Jones and the Vols to score the outright upset, but my initial thought is they should be able to stay within 18.  They'll have trouble stopping the Bulldogs ground game, and we are sure to see Todd Gurley get more than six touches like he did against Troy.

College Football Pick:Our call is take Tennessee and 16+ points as long as they are offered.

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Hogs Look To Upend Aggies In Arlington
Texas A&M fans might be thinking they've entered some time warp that has taken them back 20 years or so to the old Southwest Conference days.  The Aggies are coming off wins over Rice and SMU, and now face the Arkansas Razorbacks in a crucial SEC tilt that will be played at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

CBS will carry the 3:30 PM (ET) kickoff nationally, and the Texas A&M Aggies were sent out as 10 point favorites.

Arkansas is in the same situation as Georgia with one conference loss already, that coming in Week 1 when the Razorbacks dropped a 45-21 decision at Auburn.   The Hogs have since reeled off three straight wins, one of those coming against a Texas Tech team that runs a very similar offense as A&M.

We knew the Aggies were going to run over the Mustangs last week, but Kevin Sumlin is bringing his team back to the D-FW area this Saturday to take on a far more talented team than SMU put on the field.  Yes, the early odds are inflated once again, and college football bettors should be looking at the Razorbacks and the points in this one for their college football picks.

College Football Pick: Arkansas plus the points.

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Mizzou Hits Road For 1st SEC Contest
We'll complete our look at the early wagering numbers by staying in the SEC where everything from egos to athletic department budgets are inflated.  One of the most critical games on the Week 5 slate finds Missouri at South Carolina, the Tigers playing their first conference tilt while the Gamecocks are playing their fourth.

South Carolina started college football odds at -5.5, and that spread is up to -6 at a few shops.  The 7 PM (ET) boot at Williams-Brice Stadium will be aired by ESPN.

Missouri just suffered a huge upset at the hands of Indiana, a defeat that not only dropped Gary Pinkel's bunch out of the top 20, but almost completely off the radar of the voters in the two polls.  The Tigers, who were favored by 15 against the Hoosiers, should be mad as hell and how Pinkel channels that anger this week will make all of the difference in this one.

Pinkel and defensive coordinator Dave Steckel will also need to channel a little more intensity to the defensive unit to stay in this one.  In this case, the opening line appears pretty fair, though I'm expecting a very close finish that should provide a payday for Mizzou backers holding the points.

College Football Pick: Mizzou plus the points at 5Dimes

College Football Season: 19-13 (+4.70)

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