Inflated College Football Odds in Week 12 & How to Bet Them

Willie Bee

Monday, November 10, 2014 2:50 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 10, 2014 2:50 PM GMT

After another wild week on the College Football schedule, a few teams might be facing letdown situations. Join us, as we look at games where the odds might be inflated.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Gary Patterson and the TCU Horned Frogs are sitting in pretty good shape for a possible invite to the College Football Playoffs. They took down Kansas State this past Saturday, easily covering the 6½ point chalk in the 41-20 triumph at home to move to 8-1 both straight up and against the spread, and the remaining schedule is favorable for the Frogs to win out.

Problem is, Baylor is right there with TCU in the Big 12 race, and the Bears handed the Horned Frogs their only loss of the year which should figure into the committee's voting for the four teams that eventually get the call for the first Division I playoff. Patterson has to put all of that out of his players' minds this week, however, and deal with the a trek to Kansas to meet the Jayhawks.

The contest will be televised nationally on FOX Sports 1 beginning at 3 PM (ET), and the College Football Odds are already on the move with TCU backers needing to lay 28 points after the number started a point and a half lower.

Texas Christian moved up to No. 5 in the AP and coaches polls following the win over the Wildcats, checking in at No. 4 in the ESPN Power Ratings. The Horned Frogs could have folded after that tough loss to Baylor, so they deserve a lot of credit for still being very much in the thick of things.

There could be a slight case of look-ahead for TCU after this one with a trip to Austin to meet Texas in about a week-&-a-half, but the potential for letdown bothers me more. They may also be without the services of running back BJ Catalon for a 2nd-straight game due to a shoulder injury. Early in the season on a neutral field with everyone healthy, TCU should beat KU by four touchdowns or more, but that's not the game we're playing here and I believe the College Football Odds are inflated by 3-4 points.

Missouri Tigers vs.Texas A&M Aggies 
Its team leading the SEC East Division could be a disappointment, but the Missouri Tigers are in many ways. And after the start the Texas A&M Aggies got off to, they are indeed a disappointment even after the stunning upset at Auburn.

The two former Big 12 foes square off in College Station this week, and SEC Network subscribers can start tuning the game in at 7:30 PM (ET). College Football Odds makers sent the Aggies out at -5½, that line still holding following the first night of trading.

Texas A&M really shook up the rankings and shocked me with the 41-38 triumph against Auburn. A big early lead was just enough for the Aggies to hold on for the upset, and that could give them momentum to close out the season with a couple of wins to finish 9-3. True frosh QB Kyle Allen threw for four of A&M's five touchdowns in his second collegiate start, so it will be interesting to see if he gets a third this week with Kenny Hill having now served his 2-game suspension.

Missouri has simply not been consistent with Maty Mauk and the offense struggling to put up points the last two weeks against the likes of Vanderbilt and Kentucky. That could change this time vs. an Aggie defense that is allowing over 430 yards per game. It's A&M who is in a letdown spot, and while I believe the spread is pretty fair based on preseason expectations, putting more than 3 points on the Aggies is not a safe option for our College Football Picks. 

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Oregon State Beavers
Todd Graham and the Arizona State Sun Devils are having a fantastic season that could make them the surprise team of 2014. They've beaten four ranked teams in their last five games, and ASU has pushed its way up to No. 7 in the AP poll after taking down Notre Dame 55-31 last Saturday.

That could leave them in let down mode for this week's trip to Corvallis to face the Oregon State squad that has dropped 4-straight. ESPN has the boot at 10:45 PM (ET), and the Sun Devils are giving 9½ at 5Dimes to the Beavers, that spread up a point already from the start.

A win over Notre Dame can always lead to inflated expectations the following week. Arizona State has also dropped its last four trips to OSU while the Beavers have covered the last five meetings in this series. Still, I believe Oregon State could be getting a little too much respect for playing at home, and expect the College Football Odds to rise to ASU -11 or more before kickoff.

Season: 52-35-1 (+13.50)

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