Inflated College Football Odds in Week 10 & How to Bet Them

Willie Bee

Monday, October 27, 2014 2:43 PM GMT

Early College Football betting odds are out for Week 10, and SBR is taking a look at a few of the numbers that appear inflated based on results from this past Saturday.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
David Cutcliffe will eventually return to his alma mater down in Tuscaloosa and take over the Alabama football program when Nick Saban decides to retire. When that happens, you can remember you read it here first.

In the meantime, we need to focus on Cutcliffe's current job as head coach of the Duke Blue Devils, and more specifically their upcoming game this week against the Pittsburgh Panthers. Followers of either school can watch the contest on ESPNU, the boot coming just a bit past noon (ET) on Saturday, and SBR's live NCAA football odds have the Panthers slight home favorites at -1½, that spread down a half-point since it was initially released.

Cutcliffe brings Duke into this ACC clash ranked No. 24 in both polls and coming off a bye week. The Blue Devils' only loss came a month ago at Miami, a 22-10 setback as 3½ point road 'dogs; they have since bounced back with a pair of wins and covers vs. Georgia Tech and Virginia, the victory over the Yellow Jackets giving Duke a leg up in the Coastal Division of the ACC.

Pittsburgh was just wiped out by that same Ramblin' Wreck bunch, Georgia Tech doubling up the Panthers by a 56-38 count.  Six Pitt turnovers and Tech's ability to run at will on the Panthers is all you need to know about that one.

The clubs got together a year ago for the first time since 1976, and the result was a wild 58-55 triumph for Pittsburgh. Duke backers got the cover as 4 point underdogs, and each team eclipsed the 52 point total on their own. The Blue Devils would like to exact a little revenge for that loss, and it's my opinion this spread is inflated on Pitt a bit simply for being the home team.

While Duke may not have the running attack that Georgia Tech does, the Blue Devils should be able to run effectively on the Panthers. I'm willing to place my Week 10 College Football pick on Duke up to -3.

 

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Coming off an emotional win over Auburn in Week 7 and then a bye, it was not a big surprise to see the top-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs a bit flat this past Saturday on the road at Kentucky. Head coach Dan Mullen now has to get his troops ready for an Arkansas team that is still sporting a goose egg in the conference win column.

The Razorbacks and Bulldogs get it on Saturday evening (7:15 PM ET) in a game that can be seen on ESPN2; backing Mississippi State means laying 11½ points according to the latest college football odds.

A No. 1 team at home facing a squad that has yet to win a conference clash might lead one to believe the spread should be higher than that, especially since Mississippi State has won and covered the last two meetings with Arkansas. But in this case, it might be a little too high already. Count me among those who believe this spread is inflated by 2-3 points.

 

Stanford Cardinal vs. Oregon Ducks
College football bettors have already spoken regarding the spread in this week's Pac-12 showdown between the Stanford Cardinal and Oregon Ducks. Up to fifth in the AP and sixth in the coaches poll, Oregon was initially sent out at -12 by the oddsmakers before early action on Stanford shrunk that to 10½.

The rivals kick things off in Eugene a little past 4:30 PM local time with the big FOX broadcasting the matchup.

A classic unstoppable force vs. immoveable object is what we have once again with Oregon's offense ranked eighth in the country and Stanford's defense second. The Ducks' recent struggles with the Cardinal are obviously driving the early line movement, and I'm going to wait to see if the College Football odds drop below the double-digit mark before making a play on Oregon.

Willie Bee's Season Record of NCAAF Handicapping: 42-27-1 (+12.30)