Inflated Betting Odds in Week 9 College Football Picks

Willie Bee

Monday, October 20, 2014 2:04 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 20, 2014 2:04 PM UTC

It's time for our weekly look at College Football betting odds that might be inflated based on this past Saturday, and two games in the Big 12 plus one in the SEC stick out.

Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats
We might as well pick up where we left off last week, which was in the Big 12 that now finds the Kansas State Wildcats in control at the top of the heap. Bill Snyder's squad is the last unbeaten team on the conference slate, and they'll try to keep it that way when the Texas Longhorns come to the Little Apple for a Saturday scrum.

ESPN will carry the noon (ET) kickoff from Snyder Family Stadium, and the early college football odds have Kansas State 10 point chalk with the total still to be released.

Kansas State remained undefeated in conference play with a big upset of Oklahoma in Norman last week, 31-30. Some credit for the win certainly goes to the Wildcats, but the Sooners' kicking game and a couple of turnovers also figure heavily into the equation. The usually-stingy K-State defense surrendered a season-high 533 total yards to OU, but put up a goal-line stand when it counted near the end.

About the nicest thing that can be said about the 'Horns is they are among the better three-&-four teams in the country. Texas has good performances to show for two of its three games so far against ranked teams, and the offense is coming off its best day of 2014 with over 500 yards against Iowa State last week. The defense also had its worst game (524 yds) in the narrow 48-45 win over Iowa State as s 10½ point home favorite.

If both defenses show up and play to their potential this week, the College Football odds here are probably inflated by a couple of points. As inconsistently as the Longhorns have performed, however, I'm leaning more to K-State at this time at a sportsbook like BetOnline.


West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Suddenly, the matchup between the West Virginia Mountaineers and Oklahoma State Cowboys is a big game with a different line than it would've had a week ago. It's at least big enough for ESPN to televise the 3:30 PM (ET) kick, and the Cowboys are 3 point home favorites across SBR's live College Football odds board.

The spread in this case is a mix of inflation on WVU following a huge 41-27 upset of then-No. 4 Baylor last Saturday, plus a little deflation on Okie State after TCU dominated the Cowboys, 42-9. Credit for West Virginia's win goes to its defense that held the Bears' top-ranked offense to just over 300 yards; blame for OSU's loss at Ft. Worth can be spread all around, but a big chunk also goes to its defense that allowed the Horned Frogs four long scoring plays in the first half, including two long TD passes by Trevone Boykin.

Before those outcomes, West Virginia would've been a 6-7 point underdog for this matchup. The Mountaineers now are getting fewer points for a game they could be without top tailback Rushel Shell who is questionable with a foot injury. I'm liking Oklahoma State at the reduced price, and am keen to see the total once it comes out.


Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers
Will the real Missouri Tigers please stand up? A week after being blanked in a horrible performance at home vs. Georgia, the Tigers enjoyed a dominating defensive effort of their own in an upset victory at Florida this past Saturday to keep their hopes alive in the SEC East Division. Mizzou probably has the easiest conference schedule left of any team in the SEC, and it begins with a visit from the Vanderbilt Commodores.

The SEC Network will carry the 4 PM (ET) clash, and the Tigers opened as better than 3-TD favorites before that college football spread slid down a tad to 20½.

One consistency for Missouri the last two games has been an impotent offense that failed to garner 150 total yards in either contest. Four of the five TDs against the Gators came via special teams or the Mizzou defense, and QB Maty Mauk posted a pathetic 6-for-18, 20 yard, 1 INT performance.

Missouri should only need a little once again from Mauk & Co. since the Tigers stop unit has a chance for another big afternoon against a Vanderbilt offense that ranks near the bottom in the land tallying less than 270 yards per game. The 'Dores just squeaked by a Charleston Southern team, 21-20, in a game they were giving up 20 after covering three straight spreads as double-digit underdogs.

As bad as Vandy is, there's no reason to expect Missouri to cover a 3-TD spread with the current state of its offense with your College Football picks.

Willie Bee's Season: 35-26-1 (+6.40)

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