# Improve Your College Football Betting Profits with Cappers' Week 8 Theories

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 1:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015 1:55 PM UTC

These are teams who run and passfor 200+ YPG through the first half of the season, “play on any team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards per game, when the opposition does not.”

Analyzing First Half of the Season
I have been writing since the beginning of August about the importance of dominating the line of scrimmage when handicapping college football picks. Even with last week’s games averaging 60 PPG, the numbers expressed below make it clear that there is importance in running the football, having a balanced offense, and controlling the line of scrimmage. While most of us enjoy watching the pass happy Big12 and PAC12 Conferences run up scores of 100 PPG, controlling the line of scrimmage is where the money is for sports bettors.

This article will present overwhelming evidence that the two theories that I have promulgated for many seasons are working just as well as they have for years gone by. To turn this into factual evidence, I will offer two charts which support these two distinct theories, and give you a basis for handicapping college football betting the remainder of the season.

200 Club Theory
Let’s begin with the 200 Club members. These are teams who run and pass for 200+ YPG through the first half of the season. Balanced offenses such as these have proven to be very profitable in years gone by. Again this season, such is the case. My theory states “play on any team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards per game, when the opposition does not.” On a sample size of nearly 200 games per year, this theory has produced point spread winners at all point spread levels, with a record of 77% proficiency this millennium. This year, the record through 7 weeks of play is 91-25 ATS (78.4%). When considering the month of October only, when Conference play has begun and prices have become more competitive, the record for those three weeks is 44-9 ATS (83%). The parameters I will use for teams that are 200 Club members are that they average at least 35 PPG, run for 200+ YPG while averaging 4.5 YPR, they pass for at least 200 YPG on 7.0 or more PYPA, and they total at least 450 YPG and 6.5 YP play or better. Following is the chart which presents all qualifying teams.

 Team PPG RYPG YPR PY TY YP Play App St 39 283 6.0 205 488 7.1 Arizona 42 299 6.6 243 543 6.8 Baylor 64 348 7.1 371 720 8.9 Houston 46 280 5.5 275 556 6.9 North Carolina 41 219 6.2 264 482 7.6 Notre Dame 38 235 5.9 264 500 7.3 Ohio St 37 242 5.9 213 456 6.6 Oregon 39 297 5.9 219 516 6.6 Stanford 38 226 5.2 224 451 6.7 TCU 50 227 5.6 390 616 7.8

Double Rushers Theory
We now turn our attention to teams that we look to qualify as potential Double Rushers each week. That is teams who outrush their opponents by a margin of 2-1. We find that the history is equally as strong as our balanced explosive 200 Club members. This theory produces almost an average of 300 plays per year in the course of this millennium, and has produced 75% pointspread winners. Through 7 weeks of the 2015 college football betting season, teams who have double rushed their opponent are 114-42 ATS (73%). And much like our 200 Club members, since the beginning of Conference play in October, and with more competitive lines, the record has improved to 60-18 ATS (80%). Much like the 200 Club members, it is important to look at the defensive side of the ball for both our team and the opposition when handicapping the game. In order to qualify for a potential 200 Club Rusher when handicapping the CFB card each week, we look for teams who average 250 RYPG overland on at least 5.0 YPR. The list of those potential teams each week is below, with many of them overlapping the 200 Club members. In addition, it is important for you to note that to get the best handicapping results, you want to be playing against an opponent who is allowing 200 RYPG or more on at least 4.5 YPR or more, while laying no more than 28 points. The following is your list of potential Double Rushers after 7 weeks of play.

 Team PPG RYPG YPR Air Force 31 312 5.3 App St 39 283 6.0 Arizona 42 299 6.6 Baylor 64 349 7.1 GA Southern 40 399 7.1 GA Tech 37 287 5.6 Houston 46 280 5.5 LSU 37 329 7.0 Navy 36 335 5.9 New Mexico 31 258 5.2 Oregon 39 297 5.9

As a final reminder, remember to check the opponent’s running numbers before blindly making these play. In addition, no play should be made without checking the situation involved, any technical advantages, and of course value in the college football odds

Included as an addendum to this week’s article is a pair of examples for each of these theories, which pertain to games being played this Saturday, October 24th.

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