Improve Your College Football Betting Profits with Cappers' Week 8 Theories

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 1:55 PM GMT

These are teams who run and passfor 200+ YPG through the first half of the season, “play on any team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards per game, when the opposition does not.”   

 

 

Analyzing First Half of the Season
I have been writing since the beginning of August about the importance of dominating the line of scrimmage when handicapping college football picks. Even with last week’s games averaging 60 PPG, the numbers expressed below make it clear that there is importance in running the football, having a balanced offense, and controlling the line of scrimmage. While most of us enjoy watching the pass happy Big12 and PAC12 Conferences run up scores of 100 PPG, controlling the line of scrimmage is where the money is for sports bettors.

This article will present overwhelming evidence that the two theories that I have promulgated for many seasons are working just as well as they have for years gone by. To turn this into factual evidence, I will offer two charts which support these two distinct theories, and give you a basis for handicapping college football betting the remainder of the season.

 

200 Club Theory
Let’s begin with the 200 Club members. These are teams who run and pass for 200+ YPG through the first half of the season. Balanced offenses such as these have proven to be very profitable in years gone by. Again this season, such is the case. My theory states “play on any team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards per game, when the opposition does not.” On a sample size of nearly 200 games per year, this theory has produced point spread winners at all point spread levels, with a record of 77% proficiency this millennium. This year, the record through 7 weeks of play is 91-25 ATS (78.4%). When considering the month of October only, when Conference play has begun and prices have become more competitive, the record for those three weeks is 44-9 ATS (83%). The parameters I will use for teams that are 200 Club members are that they average at least 35 PPG, run for 200+ YPG while averaging 4.5 YPR, they pass for at least 200 YPG on 7.0 or more PYPA, and they total at least 450 YPG and 6.5 YP play or better. Following is the chart which presents all qualifying teams.

 

Team

PPG

RYPG

YPR

PY

TY

YP Play

App St

39

283

6.0

205

488

7.1

Arizona

42

299

6.6

243

543

6.8

Baylor

64

348

7.1

371

720

8.9

Houston

46

280

5.5

275

556

6.9

North Carolina

41

219

6.2

264

482

7.6

Notre Dame

38

235

5.9

264

500

7.3

Ohio St

37

242

5.9

213

456

6.6

Oregon

39

297

5.9

219

516

6.6

Stanford

38

226

5.2

224

451

6.7

TCU

50

227

5.6

390

616

7.8

 

Double Rushers Theory
We now turn our attention to teams that we look to qualify as potential Double Rushers each week. That is teams who outrush their opponents by a margin of 2-1. We find that the history is equally as strong as our balanced explosive 200 Club members. This theory produces almost an average of 300 plays per year in the course of this millennium, and has produced 75% pointspread winners. Through 7 weeks of the 2015 college football betting season, teams who have double rushed their opponent are 114-42 ATS (73%). And much like our 200 Club members, since the beginning of Conference play in October, and with more competitive lines, the record has improved to 60-18 ATS (80%). Much like the 200 Club members, it is important to look at the defensive side of the ball for both our team and the opposition when handicapping the game. In order to qualify for a potential 200 Club Rusher when handicapping the CFB card each week, we look for teams who average 250 RYPG overland on at least 5.0 YPR. The list of those potential teams each week is below, with many of them overlapping the 200 Club members. In addition, it is important for you to note that to get the best handicapping results, you want to be playing against an opponent who is allowing 200 RYPG or more on at least 4.5 YPR or more, while laying no more than 28 points. The following is your list of potential Double Rushers after 7 weeks of play.

  

Team

PPG

RYPG

YPR

Air Force

31

312

5.3

App St

39

283

6.0

Arizona

42

299

6.6

Baylor

64

349

7.1

GA Southern

40

399

7.1

GA Tech

37

287

5.6

Houston

46

280

5.5

LSU

37

329

7.0

Navy

36

335

5.9

New Mexico

31

258

5.2

Oregon

39

297

5.9

 

As a final reminder, remember to check the opponent’s running numbers before blindly making these play. In addition, no play should be made without checking the situation involved, any technical advantages, and of course value in the college football odds

Included as an addendum to this week’s article is a pair of examples for each of these theories, which pertain to games being played this Saturday, October 24th.