Huge Revenge Factor Makes Texas Tech +7 Our College Football Pick vs. TCU

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, September 24, 2015 9:30 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 24, 2015 9:30 PM GMT

Are the Horned Frogs as good as they’ve been hyped up to be? Will Texas Tech atone for last season’s total annihilation at the hands of TCU? Go inside for our college football pick.

Big Time Revenge Game for Red Raiders versus Horned Frogs
Texas Tech will host #3 TCU on Saturday in a battle between 3-0 teams. The opening kickoff at Jones AT&T Stadium is slated for 4:45 PM ET, and the game will be aired on Fox. These teams met in Fort Worth a season ago, and TCU humiliated Texas Tech by a score of 82-27.

 

High Flying Offenses
TCU has averaged 49.7 points and 599 yards of total offense per game thus far in 2015. Heisman hopeful and TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin has been rock solid in the Horned Frogs first three contests. Boykin has completed 65.7% of his pass attempts for 1029 yards, and threw for 9 touchdowns against 3 interceptions. The TCU signal caller has also ran for 148 yards and 2 additional touchdowns. Josh Doctson has been Boykin’s go to big play receiver, evidenced by his 19 pass receptions, 19.2 yards per catch average, and three touchdowns. Running back Aaron Green is TCU’s leading rusher with 272 yards, a 6.0 yard per carry average, and has run for 4 touchdowns.

Texas Tech’s offense enters this upcoming game averaging 54.3 points and 590 total yards per game. Although they still remain a pass happy offense, they have shown vast improvement in the run game. The Red Raiders have averaged 191.3 yards and 6.5 yards per rushing attempt over the last three Saturdays. Patrick Mahomes is another in a long line of Texas Tech quarterbacks that possesses the mentality of a gunslinger. Mahomes has thrown for 1029 yards and 9 touchdowns during the first three games.

 

College Football Betting Angle
Any conference home underdog (Texas Tech) of 9.5 or less, coming off 3 or more consecutive wins in a row, versus an opponent coming off two or more wins in a row, and that opponent (TCU) scored 52 points or more in their previous game, resulted in the home underdog going 20-4 ATS (83.3%) since 1989.

 

Final Analysis
There are concerns on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. Although statistically, TCU has the much better stop unit in this contest, they did allow 37 points and 508 yards to SMU in last Saturday’s 19 point home win.

Despite opening the season with a 14 point win over Sam Houston State, Texas Tech allowed their FCS opponent to rack up 37 points and 671 yards of total offense. Their effort in the last two weeks, although not spectacular, was still markedly improved. On the negative side, the Red Raiders have allowed their first three opponents to rush for 227 or more yards in each of those contests.

This game is a very tough call from my perspective, and won’t be one of my top college football picks this week. Texas Tech will be playing with a huge revenge factor after last season’s embarrassing 55 point loss at TCU. The Red Raiders are a very good +5 in turnover differential during their first quarter of the schedule. I’m going to have a very slight leans on the home underdog for one of my opinionated college football picks. According to current (9/24) college football odds, 5Dimes offers us the best combination of number and price.

College Football Pick: Texas Tech +7 at Bet365

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