How To Bet Navy Midshipmen vs Army Black Knights

Kevin Stott

Friday, December 9, 2016 8:46 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 9, 2016 8:46 PM UTC

The beat-up Midshipmen seek their 15th straight win against the Black Knights in the 117th Army-Navy Classic. In previous years, points were hard to come by in this rivalry, but with both teams now having evolved Offenses. 



Army vs. Navy, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

ESPN GameDay and US President-elect Trump will both be at this annual matchup between Army and Navy at M&T Bank Stadium (Grass) in Baltimore (Brisk, 39°, 10-20 mph Winds) in an old-fashioned game that closes out the College Football Regular Season and sort of ushers in the Bowl Season. And with the FBS College Football betting board suddenly looking a bit barren this weekend, we can count on this classic to be over-bet from there Gridiron Laws of Supply and Demand.



NCAAF odds here see Navy as 6 to 6½-point favorites with the Total at 47 to 47½—bet down considerably from its opening 51½. The Moneyline Odds see Navy-230 chalks with Army +201 with the Middies 3-point chalks in the First Half market with the First Half Total at 23½ and 24.



Army Black Knights Key Players, Trends

Army (4-1 ATS L5 vs. Navy) is led by young Americans uninterested in fame like QB Ahmad Bradshaw (4 TDs, 8 INTs) and like most Black Knight QBs in the past, prefers running the football (646 yards, 6 TDs) over passing. Andy Davidson (818 yards, 9 TDs) in Army’s big backfield threat and when they do go up top, 6-4 WR Edgar Poe (14 receptions, 3 TDs) gets the call but this is a team which ranks 128th of 128 schools in Total Passing (79.9 ypg). But still, when has Army ever averaged 30.2 ppg on Offense?



The Black Knights (6-5 SU/ATS) are 5-1 ATS L6 in December, but 7-22 ATS L29 following a Bye Week and 19-39-1 ATS L59 after SU Win. The Under is 14-2 L16 Neutral Site Army games, 20-7 L27 after a Bye, 23-7 L30 vs. a Team With Winning Record and 9-4 L13 overall. Army will be playing with extra motivation for CB Brandon Jackson was tragically killed in an automobile accident after the Black Knights’ win over Rice on Sept. 11 and it’s an emotional thing like this which can help end this 14-game Army losing streak.


Navy Midshipmen Key Players, Trends

Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo (8-0 SU vs. Army) and Navy (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) will be utilizing a 3rd-string QB in its triple-option Offense with QBs Tago Smith and Will Worth out injured, Sophomore Zach Abey (0 TDs, 2 INTs) will get the call for the Midshipmen (#3 Rushing Offense, 327.5 ypg) who will also head in without the services of Slotback Toneo Gulley and fellow Navy co-captain Daniel Gonzales (LB) was injured earlier this season.



Navy (17-8-1 ATS L26 overall) will rely heavily on FBs Chris High (483 yards, 5 TDs), Shawn White (421 yards, 7 TDs) and RB Dishan Romine (9.2 ypc) but with Worth (1,198 yards) and Gulley (427 yards) out, Abey will have to rise to the occasion. Senior WR Jamir Tillman (35 receptions, 582 yards, 2 TDs) has helped open up the Midshipmen passing attack and could be a big-play threat Saturday.


Navy is 4-0 ATS L4 following an ATS Loss, 6-0 ATS L6 after scoring 20 Points or Less Previous Game and 2-5 ATS L7 following a Bye Week. The Under is 13-3 L16 Midshipmen games in December, 15-6 L21 after a Bye and 13-4 after SU Loss, so the the technicals all support the Under in this spot.


Trends, Final Thoughts, Totals Picks

Forecasted decent Temperatures, the around 4-points of perceived value through downward movement of the Total along with the improved Offenses and high scores these two teams have put up the L6 weeks—ARMY games averaging 48.7 ppg, NAVY 78.7 ppg—recommending the Over is the pick despite the 3rd-string QB and powerful 11-1 Under Trend in this series and 9-0 mark at Army (and wait to see if this goes down another ½ or 1 from Public steam). Both teams should be able to squeeze out 3 TDs here and in a Field Goal-type game, there will be FGs.

Army-Navy games have historically gone Under due to not only the Running on almost play—chomping the game clock—but because neither team was great at scoring TDs. With Navy averaging 39.1 ppg (#18 FBS) and Army (4-0 ATS L4 at Home in series) putting up that aforementioned 30.2 ppg, it’s safe to say the service academies have grown up some Offensively.


PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Navy 27 Army 23Free College Football Pick: Over 47Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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