How Ohio State Can Upset the Betting Odds vs. Oregon

Sunday, January 4, 2015 7:52 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 4, 2015 7:52 PM UTC

This College Football handicapper answers this question: Does Ohio State have a realistic chance of pulling the outright upset of Oregon in the College Football National Championship Game?

<p><strong>NCAAF Props Offered by:</strong>  <span style="font-size:16px"><strong style="font-size:0.85em;color:rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family:sans-serif, Arial, Verdana, 'Trebuchet MS';line-height:20.7999992370605px"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3211&amp;book=ncaaf-5dimes-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0000FF">5Dimes</span><span style="color:#0000FF"> </span></a>| <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3211&amp;book=ncaaf-5dimes-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0000FF">BetOnline</span><span style="color:#0000FF"> </span></a>|<span style="color:#0000FF"> </span><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3275&amp;book=ncaaf-bovada-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0000FF">Bovada</span><span style="color:#0000FF"> </span></a>| <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3333&amp;book=ncaaf-sia-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0000FF">SportsInteraction</span> </a>| <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3278&amp;book=ncaaf-bet365-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0000FF">Bet365</span> </a>| <span style="color:#0000FF"> </span><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3276&amp;book=ncaaf-heritage-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span style="color:#0000FF">Heritage</span></a><span style="color:#0000FF"> </span></strong></span></p> <table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width:640px"> <tbody> <tr> <td><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">Oregon </span><strong style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">scores first</strong><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)"> -145 (best line <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3278&amp;book=ncaaf-bet365-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">bet365</a>)</span><br style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)" /> <span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">OhioSt scores first +145 (best line <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3211&amp;book=ncaaf-5dimes-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">BOL</a>)</span></td> <td><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">Team to </span><strong style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">score first wins game</strong><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)"> -180 (best line <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3275&amp;book=ncaaf-bovada-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bovada</a>)</span><br style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)" /> <span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">Team to score first loses game +160 (best line <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3333&amp;book=ncaaf-sia-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">SIA</a>)</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">Longest </strong><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)"><strong>TD</strong> scored o 62½ +105 (best line <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3276&amp;book=ncaaf-heritage-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Heritage</a>)</span><br style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)" /> <span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">Longest TD scored u 62½ -115 (best line <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3211&amp;book=ncaaf-5dimes-props" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">5Dimes</a>)</span></td> <td><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">Game total </span><strong style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">odd -125 </strong><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">(best line </span><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3278&amp;book=ncaaf-bet365-props" rel="nofollow" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px" target="_blank">bet365</a><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">)</span><br style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)" /> <span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">Game total </span><strong style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">even  +110 </strong><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">(best line </span><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3211&amp;book=ncaaf-5dimes-props" rel="nofollow" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px" target="_blank">5Dimes</a><span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;background-color:rgb(250, 251, 250)">)</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p> </p> <p><strong>Can the Buckeyes Upset the Ducks?</strong><br /> The <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/oregon-ducks-vs-ohio-state-buckeyes-matchup-preview/52951/" target="_blank" title="Here's our betting preview for Ohio State vs. Oregon">Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks will play</a> for the College Football national championship on January 12th at AT&amp;T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. At the time of this writing, college football betting odds show Oregon as a 7.0 point favorite, and the posted total at 75.0 (<a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=3372&amp;book=in-article-thegreek" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="The Greek Sportsbook">74.5 at the Greek</a>). I’m going to assume the challenging task of exploring factors in which Ohio State can possibly pull off the upset, versus an opponent (Oregon) who’s gone 9-0 SU&amp;ATS in their last 9-games, and won those contests by an average of 27.2 points per outing.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>The Urban Meyer Factor</strong><br /> With all due respect to Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich, who’s done a phenomenal job since replacing Chip Kelly at the beginning of the 2013 season, the head coaching edge clearly goes to Urban Meyer in this matchup. Meyer has two national championships attached to his resume that he earned while being the head man at Florida. He’s done nothing to disappoint since taking over as the head coach at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have gone a superb 37-3 since 2012 under Meyer’s guidance. If you’re concerned about the possible hangover effect for the Buckeyes <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/college-football-picks-playoff-odds-alabama-crimson-tide/52561/" target="_blank" title="Reflect on our forecast for Alabama Crimson Tide">after upsetting Alabama</a> in the national semifinal, then don’t be. Meyer has gone an outstanding 12-1 ATS in his head coaching career in games in which his teams are coming off an upset win, and they have a large +18.1 point per game differential in those contests. By the way, Meyer’s teams have gone an excellent 21-5 ATS as an underdog in <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/" target="_blank" title="College Football Odds">College Football odds</a> during his tenures at Bowling Green, Florida, and Ohio State.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Turnover Battle</strong><br /> It’s imperative that Ohio State wins the turnover battle if they’re to have a reasonable chance to upset Oregon. It certainly won’t be an easy task. Oregon has committed only 10-turnovers this season, and is at a massive +20 <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/increase-accuracy-nfl-picks-ats-turnover-margin-data/52280/" target="_blank" title="Turnover margin should be an important factor when betting on Football">turnover differential margin</a> in 2014. However, Ohio State has forced their opponents into 32-turnovers on the year, and was a +7 in that category during their previous 3-games.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>The Running Game</strong><br /> Ohio State has rushed for 219-yards or more in each of their previous 11-games. If they’re going to have a realistic chance of winning, they must come near or surpass the 300-yard rushing mark in order to provide them with that opportunity. Time of possession may be the most deceiving statistic when facing Oregon. The Ducks average just 27:07 on the season, but average 47.2 points per game, and wear opponents down with their frantic offensive pace. Putting that into proper perspective, the Ducks run an average of 75 offensive plays per game, compared to just 62 by their opponents. Ohio State must not only dominate the time of possession, but they need to go on long sustained drives that result in scores, and limit the Ducks number of offensive plays by doing so in order to <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/college-football-picks-ohio-state-offense-vs-oregon-defense/52969/" target="_blank" title="Learn more about Oregon's defense vs. Ohio State's offense">keep its defense fresh</a>.</p> <p>Contrarily, the Buckeyes will need to at least neutralize the Ducks vaunted rushing attack that averages 242-yards per game, and averages 5.5 yards per attempt. If they can limit Oregon to 200-yards or less in this game, they’ll increase their probability of attaining a victory. Ohio State is allowing 142-yards per game on the ground this season, and is surrendering just 3.9 yards per rushing attempt. <a href="http://http://www.sportsbookreview.com/college-football/free-picks/college-football-picks-oregon-offense-vs-ohio-state-defense-a-52952/" target="_blank" title="Buckeyes Defense vs. Ducks Offense">The Buckeyes defensive line</a> is their strongest unit on both sides of the ball, and they’ll need to be at their absolute best versus the Ducks, and if they are, then watch out!</p> <p><iframe allowtransparency="true" border="0" frameborder="no" height="140px" id="iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426" name="iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426" scrolling="no" src="http://js.sbrfeeds.com/index.php/article?iframeid=iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426&amp;timezone=16&amp;theme=article&amp;line-type=spreadntotals.type=whole-game&amp;odds-type=US&amp;books=19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139&amp;trackers=1409845611531.xml&amp;event-id=406245" style="width:642px;border:medium none;overflow:hidden"></iframe></p>
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