Home Dogs with Edge in Arkansas St./LA-Lafayette NCAAF Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 21, 2014 3:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2014 3:15 PM UTC

Before placing your next College Football pick, check out the betting odds available for tonight, when the Sun Belt takes center stage with Arkansas State facing Louisiana-Lafayette.

The Sun Belt takes center stage on the College Football landscape for consecutive Tuesday nights.  Last Tuesday, LA Lafayette totally dominated Texas St. with overland edges of 276-94, leading to a combined yardage advantage of 516-270.  This week, the Cajuns host rival, Arkansas St., a team they defeated 23-7 with a yardage edge of 470-168 last season.  In that game, the Cajuns were 2 point road chalk on College Football odds.

Arkansas St. has made a phenomenal turnaround under the guidance of 3 different coaches (who all went on to much bigger jobs) in the previous 3 seasons.  In 2011, it was Hugh Freeze, now the head man at Ole Miss.  In 2012, it was Gus Malzahn, the current leader at Auburn.  Last year in 2013, it was Bryan Harsin, now the current coach at Boise St.  Under the tutelage of those 3 outstanding mentors, the Red Wolves were a combined 28-11 SU, 24-12 ATS.  The 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS beginning, in which Arkansas St. has covered the number by a net of 47 points, is another positive under this year’s new mentor, Blake Anderson, the former Larry Fedora OC at North Carolina.  Already this season, the Wolves non-con schedule has steeled them with road games at Tennessee and Miami, FL and a home meeting vs. Utah St.  Following a week of rest, the Wolves began Sun Belt play with a 2-0 SU ATS start in victories over LA Monroe and GA State by a combined 80-24.  The Wolves feature a balanced offense, averaging 221 or more per game, both running and passing, while sporting a defense that allows just 21 PPG on 360/4.9.  Be sure that Arkansas St. will hunger for lone home loss revenge from last year, when they take the field against the projected No. 1 team in the Sun Belt. 

Much like Arkansas St., the Ragin’ Cajuns have been in ascent for the last 3 seasons.  In that timeframe, the Cajuns have gone 27-12 SU, including 3 consecutive Bowl victories.  That coincides with the appearance of 4th year HC Mark Hudspeth. A key to their success has been an offense that has averaged 34 PPG in those 3 years.  Much like Arkansas St., the Cajuns have been hardened by a non-conference slate that saw them go 0-3 SU ATS vs. LA Tech, Ole Miss and Boise.  With the advent of Sun Belt play, the Cajuns are a likewise 2-0 SU, including that resounding 34-10 victory last Tuesday night.  With 16 RS and one of the most experienced teams in the land, much is expected of the Cajuns again this Sun Belt season. 

Momentum players will be knee-jerking to the momentum of Arkansas St. which enters with a 9-2 ATS momentum building run.   Conversely, LA Lafayette is just 2-9 ATS of late and will be playing without their best receiver, Robinson (foot surgery).  Though Arkansas St. features lightning fast QB Knighten, I am opting for the value price that is LA Lafayette behind the veteran leadership of QB Broadway.  Based on the ATS performance to date, LA Lafayette is a -81 net AFP in this matchup.  That is a result that has swung the line a full TD in our favor from opening week.  In a battle of Sun Belt leaders, we'll place our College Football pick with the better team, at home, as underdog on a field where they are 16-3 SU, 3+Y.     

Free College Football Pick: Bet Louisiana-Lafayette at Pinnacle

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