Last Call: Passing Offenses a Late Night Pickup in Hawaii

Thursday, October 18, 2018 11:10 AM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 18, 2018 11:10 AM UTC

Our NCAAF expert, Mark Lathrop, investigates the last game of the night in Week 9 and spots a line that has been set to get action on the other side of profits.

2018 NCAAF Record: 19-12, +11.61u
*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

Nevada Wolf Pack (3-4 SU) @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (6-2 SU)Sunday, Midnight ETFree NCAAF Pick: OverBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3453539, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,92,999996,169], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

3rd year Hawaii head coach, Nick Rolovich, is navigating this season in a way that should be commended. At 6-2, the Warriors are one win away from being bowl eligible (they need a 7th win as they play 13 games), and are undefeated in conference play so far. As Bill Connelly in his Hawaii season preview listed, the Warriors are doing this in the face of great adversity. This year they are playing with a new defensive coordinator, new starting QB, new starting RB, replaced 3 of 4 of their leading WR’s, replaced their 3 top DL’s, replaced 3 of their top safeties, and both of their kick return guys on special teams. That’s a ton of turnover, and still Hawaii has found a way to win.

A lot of Hawaii’s success has come because of the emergence of QB, Cole McDonald, who is having a fantastic season so far. The junior is completing passes at a 64 percent clip, is averaging 335.4 yards passing per game, and has a 26/3 TD/INT ratio. The Warriors rank 29th in the country in passing yards per game as a result of McDonald’s efforts. On Saturday night he’ll face a Nevada team that gives up 262.3 yards per game through the air, which ranks near the bottom of the NCAAF.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

pic.twitter.com/BuK2Svs4HL

— Hawaii Football (@HawaiiFootball) October 14, 2018
\n"}[/]

Nevada’s defensive strength is against the rush, where they allow just 143.9 yards per game on the ground. That won’t match up well against Hawaii here. For the Wolf Pack on offense, they are scoring well with 31.6 points per game. They also pass well with senior QB, Ty Gangi, putting up 272.7 yards per game. Interceptions have been an issue with Gangi though and he has thrown at least one in each of his six games on the year. This is the case with even with good protection, as Nevada has given up just 5 sacks through six games.

The line on this game does reflect an offensive strength on weakness matchup for both teams, and Hawaii has been placed as a 3-point home favorite. That basically values the teams as equals with the home field advantage favoring Hawaii. I’m not interested in that line, but I smell a shootout through the air and additional possessions since Hawaii won’t be able to run the ball. The total opened at 70, but has since crashed to 66 at some books. That line looks to be bait for the Under, so I will buck the line move and take the Over as my last call NCAAF pick for Saturday night.

comment here