Handicapping the Super Surgers & Towel Tossers When Betting College Football

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 6:10 PM GMT

The Super Surger vs Towel Tosser concepts can be powerful for the next weeks. After that, the rivalry dog concept trumps virtually all else. For now, let's make momentum plays on Super Surger teams.

Super Surgers vs. Towel Tossers Introduction
In late September, we began to use the AFP (away from the point spread) concept that I introduced to you in August. The AFP is meant to ferret out value in the betting line as a result of past dichotomous point spread results. To briefly reiterate this vitally important concept once more, we look to “play on any team who has a negative AFP of -20 or less (has a net loss to the point spread for the season of 20 or more points) against an opponent who has a positive AFP of +20 or more (has beaten the point spread by 20 or more net points for YTD) if the sum of these two numbers is 50 or more.” Two weeks ago in the Michigan State vs Michigan game analysis, I noted the Spartans were a qualifying team. They didn’t need the miracle finish to cover the spread. In that article, I listed 10 more qualifying AFP teams. In all that week, the plays went 9-2 ATS. Last week in my Thursday AFP analysis of the Cincinnati vs UConn game, I again cited 10 points worth of AFP value on the Cincinnati Bearcats, due to their net AFP differential advantage. Along with the other 8 teams I listed, last week’s AFP plays went 7-2 ATS, for a two week run of 16-4 ATS. I will be listing those plays for you in yet another AFP game analysis on Thursday. Right now, I bring up the concept of these AFP net differentials, because they are used as qualifiers for the next three weeks when we isolate our Super Surgers vs Towel Tossers.

The Super Surger vs Towel Tosser concept can be a very powerful momentum play for the next three weeks. After that, the rivalry dog concept trumps virtually all else. Until then, we look to make momentum plays on Super Surger teams that meet qualifications that I list below. We also look to make negative momentum plays against the Towel Tossers that I list below. When these two concepts match up in a game, and they are not negated by an AFP negative net differential, these are very powerful plays. Let’s discuss some of the qualifiers for each of those two categories of teams.

 

Towel Tossers
These are teams who have slim or no chance of going Bowling. Often these teams are perennial losers who go meekly in the first few weeks of November. Only as big rivalry dog in the closing weeks do they again come to life as college football picks. Parameters for such Towel Tossers are those teams who are NOT Bowl eligible, either because they already have 7 losses, or because the game they are currently playing becomes a reality that it is their 7th loss. These teams are not to be trusted unless they are to be considered as an AFP net differential play.

 

Super Surgers
At the other end of the spectrum are the Super Surgers. These teams can be broken up into two groups. The first group is teams who are vying for a 6th win, which will make them Bowl eligible. Normally, these teams can be considered at this point in the season to be teams who are within one game of .500 (or .500). These teams show great intensity and passion, as they play in competitively priced games to get their qualifying 6th win. Rarely are teams such as this off set by net AFP indicators.

The other area of Super Surgers is a bit trickier. These are teams ranked in the top 8 who are vying for Final Four consideration. Whether it be factual or not, these teams believe the “eye test” is meaningful in their rankings. As a result, their coaches will often go for the throat. Similar teams in this category are those who are vying for a league, or division, championship. Though these teams may be less conscious of margins, they still play with great passion and intensity, especially in competitively priced games. It is teams in this latter category of Super Surgers that we must be especially weary of playing if they are offset by net AFP considerations. Keep an eye out for college football odds for these teams, as they will change depending on the sportsbook of your choice

There is no doubt that it takes a bit of experience in order to accurately, and most efficiently use, the concept of Super Surgers and Towel Tossers. Essentials include the YTD records, straight up ATS and AFP margins, as well as Conference records of such. This week I will include a couple of concepts of Super Surgers vs Towel Tossers so that you get the gist of qualifying games.