Handicapper Round Table Report for Baylor vs. Texas Tech

SBR Staff

Thursday, November 27, 2014 3:14 PM GMT

Baylor is the heavy favorite on college football odds listed at -25 vs. Texas Tech. Find out what our handicappers have to say about this matchup complete with their free colelge football picks. 

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Handicapper Matt Jordan:
I like the Red Raiders to cover here. They won't win or anything but perhaps Baylor is too worried about style points and not simply winning. Plus there's that big showdown next week with KSU. 

ATS
It's the season finale for a disappointing Texas Tech squad. It could be a bit of a trap game for Baylor as it has a huge one next week with
Kansas State that has Big 12 title and College Football Playoff ramifications for the Bears. This game is a neutral-site matchup at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Baylor opened as a 24.5-point favorite. 

Total
Only a total of 79? Disappointing. Was hoping for 89. Seriously. Of course Baylor is No. 1 in the nation in scoring and has to impress the playoff committee as much as possible. That means running up the score. Texas Tech is easily the worst Power 5 defense in the country, ranking No. 126 in points. TCU scored 82 on this group. What might the Bears do? Go over.

Free College Football Pick: Bet Texas Tech & the 'Over' at 5Dimes

 

Handicapper Ross Benjamin:
Any favorite (Baylor) of 21.5 to 31.0, that has a point per game differential of +10.0 or better, and has scored 42-points or more in each of their previous 2-games, versus an opponent with a -10.0 or more point per game differential, has gone 33-9 ATS (78.6%) since 1992. Play on Baylor minus the points over Texas Tech.

Any team (Baylor) with a total of 70.0 or more, playing in game 7 of the season or beyond, that's gained 450-yards or more in each of their previous 3-games, and both teams in the contest average 440-yards or more of total offense per game on the season, has seen 43 of those 62-games (69.4%) go over the total since 1992. For your college football picks play on Baylor and Texas Tech to go over the college football odds total.

ATS
Baylor (9-1) can ill afford to stub their toe in this spot with national title hopes still being a realistic goal. The only question in my mind is if they will be able to cover the huge number in this rivalry game. It's hard to imagine Texas Tech (4-7) being able to trade blows with this high powered Baylor Bears offense that averages 50.0 points per game. After all this is the same Texas Tech defense that allowed 82-points earlier this season versus TCU, and gives up 40.6 points per outing. The Red Raiders enter this game having lost 7 of their last 9-games.

Total
Despite Baylor games averaging 71.7 points, the Bears have gone over the total in 5 of those 9-contests. Putting things into perspective in that regard, the total in Baylor's 9-games versus FBS opponents has averaged 68.4 per contest. Meanwhile, Texas Tech games have averaged a total of 67.3. The Red Raiders have seen 5 of their last 7-games go under the total. Based on those figures it would seem to the average bettor that this total is inflated. However, to steal a boxing cliché, “styles make fights", and this one may short circuit the scoreboard.

Free College Football Pick: Baylor -25 & 'Under' at Bookmaker

 

Handicapper Jeff Grant:
These two teams will be meeting at a neutral site for the sixth consecutive season, which makes Baylor worth a long look due to the favorite being 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

ATS
Baylor’s 5-1 ATS mark as favorites of 21.5 to 31 points is hard to ignore in this Big 12 matchup, as Texas Tech has failed to cash for point spread bettors when receiving that amount of points in two occasions since 2012. The Bears secured a 63-34 victory over the Red Raiders as 27.5-point home favorites in last year’s meeting, which signals they may be a bit overvalued Saturday.

Total
The Bears are second in the conference in averaging 239.5 rushing yards per game, while they pace all teams in defending the run amongst those members.

Free College Football Pick: Baylor -25

College Football Rivalry Preview for Baylor vs Texas Tech 

Handicapper Dave Lawrence:
Kliff Kingsbury's good looks haven't done much for Tech. Lost seven of eight and last week's 3-point win at Iowa State was not encouraging. They should get blown off the map by a Baylor team that's really good.

ATS
Baylor is laying a huge number in this spot as the Red Raiders have been horrible this year. Baylor can't afford any slipups and they shouldn't have any versus a Texas Tech team that barely beat Iowa State last week. The Red Raiders are known for offense but that's been struggling recently, averaging just 27.6 over their last nine. That's low for them. Baylor should run away with this one and cover pretty easily.

Total
Don’t be surprised if the clock runs more than expected in this affair, with the UNDER being 5-2 in the Red Raiders’ last seven games overall.

Free College Football Pick: Bet Under