Great Value in UNC vs. Notre Dame NCAAF Point Spread Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 11, 2014 1:53 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 11, 2014 1:53 PM UTC

This College Football handicaper applies his 'Perception/Reality' strategy to North Carolina vs. Notre Dame, explaining that the matchup is based on contrary thinking that provides great value ATS.


North Carolina vs. Notre Dame (-17) 3:30 ET NBC
The last 2 weeks, this concept has fallen flat on its face using road favorites, a role quite foreign to the thinking of the perception/reality games. This week, we return to the concept of value laden road dog in a great situation. 

Three weeks ago in the PSP Newsletter, I isolated a theory based on AFP (away from the pointspread) thinking.  The concept stated that in weeks 4-7, we look to play teams who had failed miserably to the pointspread against teams who had succeeded admirably.  When the net differential was 50 or more points against the betting line, it was a clear indicator of value provided.  In today’s matchup, N. Carolina enters at 0-5 ATS, failing against the number by 61 points, while Notre Dame enters at 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, covering by a net of 28 points.  That net -89 AFP differential clearly points out the value on a N. Carolina team in a game where the line has been adjusted by nearly 2 TDs from where it would have been the opening week of the season.  A look at each team’s schedule provides some answers.

N. Carolina is having a miserable defensive season.  The Tarheels are allowing 42 PPG and 506 YPG.  After opening with victories vs. outmanned Liberty and SD St., the Tarheels have allowed 154 points the last 3 weeks and going 0-3 SU ATS vs. ECU, Clemson and VA Tech. 

Before making your College Football Pick, understand that the Notre Dame season is at the opposite end of the spectrum.  But, the 5-0 SU start has been far from dominant on the offensive side of the ball.  Must credit the Fighting Irish with outstanding defense, as they are allowing just 12 PPG, 316 YPG, and 4.7 YP play!  In last week’s article, selecting Notre Dame to beat Stanford, I told you to “put your money on the player.”  That is exactly what happened as QB Golson completed a 4th down pass for the winning TD with a minute to go. 

Veterans of the pointspread wars will immediately take one glance at the schedule to note that this contest with lightly respected N. Carolina is sandwiched directly between that huge Stanford comeback victory and their matchup at defending champion, Florida St., next week.  

Free College Football Pick: Play against Notre Dame in a letdown look ahead scenario, using the 0-5 ATS Tarheels at a huge value price at the Greek .    

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